This decision of the producing countries aims to reassure the markets, while Europe has decreed an embargo on the essentials of Russian black gold.
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A little more than three months after the start of the war in Ukraine, on February 24, the valves begin to loosen. Since Thursday, June 2, the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) and their allies have displayed a new goal: the marketing of 648,000 additional barrels per day in July, for a daily total of 43 million ‘units. It is more than the monthly increase since the last quarter (+ 432,000 barrels per day), and even more than that since summer 2021 (+ 400,000), after draconian discounts due to COVVI-19. >
The informal alliance, known as Opep +, is embarrassed. How to keep Russia in its ranks, a new ally since 2016 and the world’s main exporter with Saudi Arabia, even though the Kremlin is now the subject of sanctions for invading Ukraine? Monday, May 30, after the United States and the United Kingdom, the countries of the European Union agreed: they intend to slash their imports of Russian oil by the end of 2022 by around 90 %.
The enhancement of monthly production objectives can be interpreted as a gesture intended to reassure the market somewhat. A way of bringing the concerns of consumer countries (especially in Europe, the United States and China) back to future supplies, and therefore prices – although the Brent of the Northern Sea has experienced a slight increase June 2, to finish around $ 117 (around 109 euros). 2> “an important first”
“This small concession in favor of importing countries comes before the summer period of vacation departures, and therefore before a surplus of car traffic, which corresponds in particular to the” Driving Season “[season of major automobile trips] in the States- United, the first country consumer of oil in the world, “notes Francis Perrin, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.
“OPEC’s message is to say that it cares about stabilization of the market, which is mainly in line with Western concerns”, underlines Philippe Copinschi, researcher in political science. Its main ally, Russia, continues another ambition: “Reorganize all of its hydrocarbon export sector in the coming months”, especially to Asia, even if it means breaking its prices, Recalls the energy specialist at Sciences Po.
The announced increase marks “an important first step, without being spectacular,” said Francis Perrin. “It shows in any case that the producing countries have taken into account the insistent pressures of importing countries, while retaining Russia on board.”
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