If measures are not implemented against this scourge which threatens the environment and contributes to the collapse of biodiversity, its production could almost triple.
Le Monde
Production and plastic waste will increase sharply by 2060, even if strong supervision measures are taken worldwide, warns the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Friday, June 3, then that the United Nations (UN) recently launched negotiations to combat this pollution.
If nothing is done, plastic production will almost triple compared to 2019, going from 460 million tonnes to 1,231 million tonnes (MT), and that of plastic waste increase in the same proportions, of 353 mt at 1,014 mt, according to a Report of the OECD.
The hundreds of millions of tonnes of waste produced each year, which degrade in microplastics, are found in all the oceans of the globe, in the ice floe, in the body of humans and in that of animals, and even in the ‘Air taken at the top of mountains.
The UN launched negotiations in early March for a global treaty against plastic pollution, a scourge that threatens the environment and contributes to the collapse of biodiversity. But the development of a text is not expected before 2024.
Two scenarios
The OECD assesses two scenarios with reinforced measures relating to the entire life cycle of plastics (production/use/recycling or elimination), as provided for in the mandate of the negotiators of the future international treaty.
The first “regional action” scenario provides for differentiated commitments by country, with more ambitious measures for those of the OECD, richer. The second, “global ambition”, plans “a set of very rigorous measures intended to reduce global plastic releases to a level close to zero by 2060”.
But even in these two scenarios, the use of plastics and the production of waste experiences a strong increase. In “regional action”, the production of plastics goes from 460 Mt to 1,018 Mt (17 % less than the level planned if nothing is done) and that of waste increases from 353 Mt to 837 Mt (also -17 %). Only the quantities of “poorly managed waste” and “plastic releases” in the environment would drop in absolute value compared to 2019.
“a fairly limited economic cost”
The volume of poorly managed waste would go from 79 Mt in 2019 to 59 Mt in 2060 in the regional scenario and to 6 MT in the global scenario, against an increase at 153 MT if nothing is done. The releases in the wild would decrease by 22 Mt to 20 Mt in the regional scenario and to 6 MT in the global scenario, against a 44 Mt increase without any measure.
If nothing is done, the stocks already accumulated in aquatic environments would be multiplied by three for the rivers and the lakes (109 Mt at 348 Mt) and by almost five in the oceans (30 Mt to 145 mt).
The OECD believes that the two reduction scenarios could be implemented “at a relatively modest cost reported to GDP”. Regional action would lead to a reduction in “only 0.3 %” of world GDP compared to the “reference” scenario, without any limitation action. But with strong regional disparities, the main losers being sub-Saharan Africa (1.1 %) and the European Union countries not a member of the OECD (1.8 %).
The “global ambition” scenario would reduce world GDP 0.8 % compared to the reference scenario, “which shows once again that public policies have a fairly limited economic cost”, underlines the OECD.