According to an ISPOS-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde”, the outgoing president remains at the top of the voting intentions (26.5%), followed by the far-right candidate (22.5%) and the leader “insou” (17.5%).
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less than 48 hours of the first round of the presidential election, the differences within the head trio tend to tighten. This is the main teaching of the survey conducted on April 8, by Ipsos Sopra Steria for Le Monde. For this survey, 10,425 people were interviewed, depending on the quota method. The voting intentions for the 10th of April are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, 7,321 people. The error margins for the first round are very low, between 0.2 and 1 point.
Four points now separate Emmanuel Macron (stable with 26.5% of the voting intentions, margin of error of more or less 1 point) of Marine Le Pen (who wins a point and reached 22.5%, even margin error). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, solid third man of this election, continues his dynamic. The candidate of the People’s Union progresses 1.5 points in four days and goes from 16% to 17.5%.
Far behind are the other far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour (9%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.7 point), the candidate of Republicans, Valérie Pécresse (8.5%, margin error of more or less 0.6 point), then the ecologist Yannick Jadot (5%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.5 points).
All other candidates collect less than 5% of the voting intentions. This is, in order, Fabien Roussel (3%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.4 point), Nicolas Dupont-aignan (2.5%, even margin of error), Anne Hidalgo and Lassalle Jean (2%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.3 point) and finally the Trotskyists Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud (respectively 1 and 0.5 points, margin of error of more or less 0.2 point ).
These results confirm several things. First of all, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has embedded a “useful vote” on the left. The member of the Bouches-du-Rhône has long theorized “the mouse hole” to qualify for the second round. Understand: an addition of favorable circumstances. And that’s the case this year. The “insou” made a good campaign, his left opponents are weak and divided and the outgoing president entered late in the race. Above all, the real boon for him was the division of the far right which, mechanically, lowers the entrance ticket for the second round. All the energy of the “insou” was therefore, since the withdrawal early March of Christiane Taubira for lack of the necessary sponsors (and which said Friday that she would vote for Mr. Mélenchon), to present the candidate of the People Union as The only one capable of hatching the extreme right to the post and thwart all the predictions. For the left electorate seems exhausted from the intestinal quarrels and aspires not only to the union but also to weigh in the national political debate.
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