Despite his good score in the first round of the presidential election, 27% of respondents say “appreciate” the national gathering candidate
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Credibilization and Banalization are the two pillars of the Marine Le Pen strategy. This strategy, started before 2017 but strongly amplified since then, needs to neutralize political issues by changing the most clevy proposals to better rely on a reworked personal image.
The first round of the presidential election has been obviously an electoral success for Marine Le Pen. She resisted the irruption of Eric Zemmour. It has grown throughout the campaign – unlike 2012 and 2017 -, obtained a historical score (23.15% of the vote) and, for the first time, enjoys electoral reserves.
His win in the second round becoming a plausible hypothesis, it remains to be measured until what the Banking and Creditability Strategy worked: the tenth wave of the electoral panel brings valuable information.
The balance sheet is positive for it on two important points. The respondents denounce the distance between them and politicians but recognize widely (46%) the ability of M me le Pen to “understand people’s problems like them”. Interviewees are dissatisfied with the country’s situation and substantially estimate (63%) that the National Gathering Candidate (RN) wants “really to change things” – without saying, and it’s a nuance of weight, that she wants to change them in the right direction.
A mixed personal image
The balance sheet is more mixed with respect to his personal image: on one side 27% of the panel only say “appreciate” Marine Le Pen against 51% who say “not to appreciate it”. This last figure was 59% in 2017.
The balance sheet, especially, is negative for all the rest and, to convince oneself, we must focus not on the average of the French but on the average of what we can call “the block not the Pen “. WHAT IS THE “BLOCK NO LE PEN”? All voters who voted neither for Marine Le Pen nor for Eric Zemmour or Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. How is this distinction illuminating? Because it makes it possible to measure the potential for expansion beyond the traditional supports of the candidate. How important is it? Because the key to this second round is in the ability to attract particularly a significant part of those who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Valérie Pécresse.
What to conclude? The banalization of M me Le Pen is very far from being completed. For the “Bloc No Le Pen”, the RN remains a “nationalist and racist” party (80%) and constitutes “a danger to the Republic” (78%). In doing so, Marine Le Pen “worries” 78% of these voters who, at 80%, believe that it is “not able to gather the French” and, at 87%, fear “voltages or violent manifestations” If adventure she was elected President of the Republic. The judgment is without appeal.
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