According to the tenth wave of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, in partnership with CEVIPOF and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for “[Nute]”, the gap that separates the head of the candidate of the candidate. ‘far right increases, with 56% against 44% of the voting intentions, an increase of 2 points in fifteen days.
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A four days of the second round of the presidential election, Sunday, April 24, Emmanuel Macron is always a favorite. The gap that separates it from Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, increases (56% against 44% of the voting intentions, an increase of 2 points in fifteen days), and the security of the vote in his favor is very strong: 93% (89% with respect to Marine Le Pen).
, it should be careful. Several difficulties are, indeed, for the outgoing President. First, the extreme right has never been so strong. Its three candidates (Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) gathered more than 32% of the vote in the first round. The national gathering candidate (RN) has never been tested as high a few days before the second round. Five years ago, Mr. Macron already confronted him; It was then credited with 41% voting intentions. In the end, and after a catastrophic debate, Marine Le Pen will collect 33.9% of the votes.
Other risk for the outgoing president: to be re-elected “for lack of better”, and gain because the voters mobilize against M me Le Pen, without adhering to the Macronian project.
These are the main teachings of the tenth wave of the electoral survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for [Nute].
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 12,706 people. The voting intentions are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, 7,563 people. Result: The margin of error is very low (plus or minus 1.1 point). The investigation was carried out from April 15 to 18, that is to say before the debate between two towers of April 20th.
Macron signals to the voters on the left
Since the first round, a new campaign has begun for the head of state. On the form: As it appeared remotely, it now multiplies the trips, goes to meet the French in areas that are not favorable to it, including the Pas-de-Calais and Merlenchonists of Marseille.
On the bottom: he sent several signals to the voters on the left and environmentalists. During his speech in Marseille on the 16th of April, he spoke, like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of “ecological planning” and even “for the future”, the name of the program of the “insou”. It is a question of giving pledges to a left electorate disappointed by his first five-year and very reassembled against him.
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