The gross domestic product of the middle empire increased by 4.8% over the first three months of the year. But the activity should settle in the second quarter due to the confinement of the economic capital, Shanghai.
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Despite the Zero Covid policy set up by Beijing, Chinese growth has been the first quarter of an amazing vigor. According to the figures published on Monday, April 18, the growth was 4.8% in the first quarter, compared to 2021. It is more than expected by the economists who, according to the panel of Bloomberg, rather put on a growth of 4, 3%. In the last quarter 2021, it was only 4%.
According to the National Statistical Office, growth was driven in March by industrial activity (+ 5% year-on-year), fixed capital investments (+ 9.3%) while retail sales They have fallen (3.5%). Urban unemployment has increased to 5.8%, but the 16-24 year olds is much higher and reaches 16%.
If, finally, the first quarter was honorable, the second risk of less being. When Shanghai’s National Exhibition Center – the commercial showcase of this city that itself wants the country’s window – is transformed into an emergency hospital to accommodate more than 40,000 people with COVID-19, it’s all the China who is sick. Because the confinement of the economic capital since the first April is that the emerging part of the iceberg: out of the main Chinese cities, only thirteen would have put in place no restriction action. Sanitary, according to Cabinet Gavekal Economics.
In slow motion
Everywhere else, especially in Beijing, everything is done to dissuade the population from leaving the city and transport and logistics companies live a real nightmare. In this context also marked by the war in Ukraine, the economy obviously rotates slow motion.
In early March, the government had set a growth target of 5.5% over the year. A modest number – In any case the lowest that China has known for thirty years with the exception of 2020 – but more ambitious than most economists do.
In the face of a gloomy, the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, multiplies the meetings and suggests that a recovery plan is being prepared. But until President Xi Jinping does not question the “zero policy” COVID “, most of the measures will have as much effect as a plaster on a wooden leg. The central bank, despite everything, announced on Friday, April 15 that the compulsory reserve rate, that is to say the share of deposits that the banks are required to keep in their coffers, will be reduced by 0.25 point from the April 25th. A decline to encourage banks to give more credits and therefore support the economy.
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