In a report published on Tuesday, the institution considers that “the war in Ukraine caused a major shock in the commodity markets and modified the physiognomy of trade, production and consumption in the world”.
Le Monde with AFP
Food and energy prices, the rise of which was exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, could remain high for several years, considers the World Bank, in a Report published Tuesday, April 26 . “The war in Ukraine caused a major shock in the commodity markets and modified the physiognomy of trade, production and consumption in the world”, notes the institution. The authors of the report estimate that “prices will continue at historically high levels until the end of 2024”.
They point out that rising energy prices over the last two years has been the largest since the 1973 oil crisis. “That of food raw materials – including Russia and Ukraine are large producers – and fertilizers, whose production depends on natural gas, has never been so strong since 2008, comments on the World Bank. Overall, it is the biggest shock on the commodities we have known since the years 1970. “
” Stagflation spectrum “
“This shock is aggravated by an upsurge in restrictions on food, fuel and fertilizer”, estimates Indermit Gill, World Bank Vice President for the Fair Growth, Finance and Institutions Center, adding that this Places the “spectrum of stagflation”.
For the only energy prices, the World Bank tables on an increase of more than 50% this year, before a decline in 2023 and 2024. As to those of non-energy goods, such as agricultural products and metals. , they are expected to increase by almost 20% this year, then also decrease in subsequent years.
“However, commodity prices should remain well above the average of the last five years and, in the case of prolonged war or new sanctions against Russia, they could become even higher and more volatile than what is currently planned, “Alert the institution located in Washington. These price increases have “a considerable human and economic cost and risk [NT] to curb progress in reducing poverty,” she also deplores.