abstention, postponement of voices, recomposition … There are many uncertainties before the final duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, Sunday April 24.
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Macron-Le Pen, episode 2. The duel which is replayed Sunday April 24 between the two finalists of the 2017 election cannot be a simple remake. First of all because Emmanuel Macron, outgoing president, is no longer the new candidate who had burst into the political scene five years earlier by exalting the promise of renewal. He is now carrying a balance sheet, he has gone through the tests of a five-year term marked by successive crises and crystallized on his person many resentments and resentments, when they are not detestation. 3268028- 4.78 % for Valérie Pécresse, 1.75 % for Anne Hidalgo -, failing for the second time in a row to qualify their training for the second round, the protest votes brought together more than 60 %. Finally, when, in 2017, Marine Le Pen collected 21.30 %of the votes in the first round, this time she obtained 23.15 %, 4.7 points behind Emmanuel Macron (27.85 %). However, the three far -right candidates – Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour (7.07 %) and Nicolas Dupont -Aignan (2.06 %) – accumulate 32.3 %, a third of the votes!
The combination of these factors encourages that the result of April 24 will be tighter than it was in 2017, where Mr. Macron had won by 66.1 % of the vote against 33.9 %. The latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Monde published Friday April 22, at the day before the second round (made on a sample of 12,129 people registered on the electoral and aged lists over 18, including 7,549 Some of going to vote and having expressed an intention to vote), credited Mr. Macron of 56.5 % of voting intentions and m me le pen by 43.5 %.
Rush on proxies
The traditional debate of the in-between-tours which opposed, Wednesday, April 20, the two protagonists did not seem to move the lines in large proportions. Unlike that of 2017, which had sealed the far -right candidate. Consequently, in a context where “everything except Macron” rivals, in a fraction of the electorate, with “everything except Le Pen”, participation in the second round of the ballot and the postponement of voice will take a major issue.
abstention, first of all. In the first round, the percentage of abstention (26.3 %) was slightly higher than that of the second round of 2017 (25.4 %). This Sunday, it could cross a new summit, without reaching the peak of 31.1 % recorded in 1969. Especially since this second round Sunday is also the one where the three school zones are during spring holidays . However, the score collected by the extreme right in the first round can also encourage voters who had not moved on April 10 to go to the polls. This is what would suggest the rush on the proxies observed in recent days: more than 600,000 recorded since the first round. In 2002, after the shock that the qualification in the second round of Jean-Marie Le Pen had formed, abstention had dropped eight points between the two ballot towers, going from 28.4 % to 20.3 %. The latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey gives an estimated participation index between 71.5 % and 75.5 %.
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