In an interview with the “world”, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Trade, Taras Kachka, evokes the export difficulties of his country.
Interview by
On the occasion of the Davos summit, which was held from May 22 to 26 in Switzerland, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Trade, Taras Kachka, returned to the damage inflicted on his country, industrial and agricultural activities Still standing and the obstacles to recovery.
How to count the damage suffered by Ukraine?
We can of course use the traditional macroeconomic figure, which tells us that the gross domestic product of Ukraine should drop in 2022 from 30 % to 40 %. However, reality is more complex. In terms of destruction, we are currently 24,000 kilometers of roads and 38 million square meters of housing. We estimate them at $ 100 billion [93 billion euros] in accounting value and $ 600 billion in negative impact. If we aggregate all the losses, we probably arrive around $ 1,000 billion.
Has the active population decrease with population movements and war departures?
The biggest impact is that of the seven million displaced. Then come the four million people who left abroad, to which are added around 700,000 others, who have taken the way to the war. However, we are also starting to observe some feedback, especially in the kyiv and Kharkiv regions [is]. That said, almost 70 % of companies work normally. For example, the bank sector works 80 %, that of railways, of course, but also the post or electricity.
What about your foreign trade , agriculture and steel?
As for agriculture, 80 % of the arable land is planted and we will have a wheat production comparable to that of 2021, even if fertilizer and diesel for the vehicles are lacking. There will be a little fewer corn. But overall, we are able to export a grain volume comparable to that of last year around the world. The problem is that he cannot get out of the country.
In 2021, we exported 20 million tonnes of wheat and 24.6 million tonnes of corn, almost all by sea. Trains and trucks are not suitable for such quantities, all the more that the storage infrastructure and the whole ecosystem, up to traders, are installed in the ports around Odessa [South]. In the case of sunflower, of which we are the world’s leading exporter, we exported 5.1 million tonnes in 2021. This year, we can only get out of it 100,000 tonnes per month by land.
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