This minimal increase could announce a reversal of the labor market, according to specialists.
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Is it an inversion of the curve in the wrong direction? For the first time in one year, the number of job seekers without any activity (category A) increased very slightly in April: it reached 3.179 million throughout the territory (overseas including, except Mayotte ), or an increase of 0.3 % in one month, according to statistics broadcast Wednesday May 25 by the Directorate of Research, Studies and Statistics (DARES) at the Ministry of Labor.
This variation must be commented on with caution, first because it relates to monthly data which is very volatile and, then, difficult to interpret – the Dares recommending to favor quarterly figures to engage in analyzes. In addition, the evolution is the thickness of the line.
But it draws attention, in a context of zero growth between early January and late March, according to the first estimates of INSEE. Several phenomena have played: Invasion of Ukraine, which accentuates pre-existing tensions on energy prices and several raw materials, freezing of the activity of many companies in China to counter the restart of the COVVI-19 epidemic , decline in consumption in March in France, etc.
“Households and very cautious businesses”
The – Very small – Increase in the number of job seekers observed in April therefore occurs at a time when the world economy crosses an area of strong turbulence. “Over the past few years, we have already experienced small hostes on this type, comments Gilbert this, professor at the Neoma Business School. At this stage, that cannot be read as a structural reversal.” However, continues -As, “it would not be surprising that job creations and the drop in unemployment experienced a stop”. “Current uncertainty risks making households and businesses very cautious,” he judges.
Mathieu Plane, from the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), formulates a slightly more clear prognosis. “It is likely that we are in the beginning of a labor market reversal with regard to the evolution of the activity, he says. It would not be surprising to record an increase in unemployment in the coming quarters . “
For the time being, the job market resists. In April, the number of hiring declarations of more than a month (excluding interim) increased by 0.3 %, when it had reflected 0.6 % in March, according to URSSAF. The bosses continue to enlist labor, at higher levels than those prevailing just before the start of the health crisis (+ 8.9 % compared to February 2020).
The government maintains its help to prevent recruitments from stinging from the nose. Thus, the exceptional bonuses allocated to companies that use work -study students (learning and professionalization contracts) will be extended “at least until the end of the year,” said the new Minister of Labor on Tuesday , Olivier Dussopt. This arbitration is important, because it concerns a device put in place in mid-2020, which has greatly contributed to the dynamism of employment over the recent period.