In the most likely scenario of a seasonal resurgence of the epidemic, the High Authority for Health recommends a new recall in all people at risk of serious forms.
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In the next fall, people at risk of serious Cavid-19 forms will have to lend their shoulders to a new injection in all likelihood. In a document made public Wednesday, May 25, the High Authority for Health (HAS) indeed recommended this strategy to anticipate” the probable resurgence of a variant “.
Among the audiences concerned, we find immunocompromised people and their entourage and people aged 65 and over or having comorbidities (cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, obesity, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic kidney failure, chronic liver disease, cancer or malignant hemopathy, psychiatric disorders, etc.). According to its estimates, more than 25 million people in France. A new injection, for these populations, would most often constitute a third reminder – a fifth dose.
This recommendation is made in a period of relative lull. The number of new infections, in fact, continues to decrease, with 24,231 positive cases to COVID-19 to May 24, a fall of 25 % compared to the previous week. However, the circulation of the virus remains at a high level, and the Minister of Health, Brigitte Bourguignon, prompted the most vulnerable to vigilance, Wednesday morning, on RTL: “There is always this risk, and I ask the The most fragile people to continue to have barrier gestures, to protect yourself, to vaccinate. “
Three scenarios
“In the fall, we can have again an epidemic that returns,” added the minister, even if, according to her, “the hardest part is behind us”. In fact, the HAS envisages three scenarios for the coming months, based on the hypotheses described by the World Health Organization (WHO). The first, optimistic, is that of a return to normal, with future less severe variants and immunity maintained against serious forms. “In this case, the recall campaign would only be offered to immunocompromised persons, to relaunch their immunity,” explains Elisabeth Bouvet, president of the Technical HAS Vaccinations Commission.
At the other extreme, the pessimistic scenario provides for the emergence of a new, more virulent variant, not covered by current vaccines. “It would then be necessary to vaccinate the general population, with new suitable vaccines,” adds the infectiologist. Even if it is not the most likely, the has notes that should be prepared for it.
But the “most likely” scenario is that where “the impact of the circulation of the virus, always active, would be less thanks to lasting and sufficient immunity, allowing to limit serious forms and deaths”. The variant in question here, would be close to Omicron. The epidemic waves would then be less and less serious, with peaks of periodic transmission, “at minimum seasonal, during cold periods”, specifies Elisabeth Bouvet.
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