Points at 30 ° C are expected on the side of Clermont-Ferrand, Bordeaux, Montauban, Toulouse or Lyon in the coming days. Temperatures up to 9 ° C greater than the reference normal. The risk of drought is also high due to the low level of precipitation.
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The starting week promises to be summer. The next too. France must indeed experience an episode of early, durable and extended warmth, with peaks at 30 ° C on the side of Clermont-Ferrand, Bordeaux, Montauban, Toulouse, Lyon … Mercury will climb also above 25 ° C In the north, after a temporary drop on Thursday. In the coming days, maximum afternoon temperatures should exceed 8 ° C to 9 ° C from seasonal normal compared to the averages observed between 1981 and 2010. With climate changes, this reference period does not appear more suitable and must soon change.
“It is not a heat wave, the nights will still remain pleasant, relativizes Tristan AMM, forecastist at Météo-France. An episode like this is remarkable so early in the year, but not unprecedented. During the months of May, we can observe both the last frosts and the first days at 30 ° C. “Nothing allows to deduce that summer will be hot. Prudent, Météo-France recalls that the hottest May since 1945 has occurred in 2011. The following summer season did not exceed normal.
One thing seems safe, however, despite some scattered thunderstorms expected, drought seems to be announced this year again. On the date of the 1 ER April already, the geological and mining research office drew a card of bad omen, identifying a majority of moderately or high underground groundwater, on the eve of their drain phase spring. The situation is all the more disturbing for those who have already regressed in 2020, in Provence, in Côte d’Azur and in Corsica in particular.
Since 1 er January, the metropolis has indeed recorded a cumulative deficit in precipitation of 35 %, still compared to 1981-2010. Winter has not been rainy enough to allow effective realling of underground layers: the overall balance sheet ended in a deficit of 22 % between September 2021 and March 2022. In fact, since then, every month, except December, recorded precipitation below average. Thus, the Grand-Est, New Aquitaine, Brittany and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur are struggling.
a contrasting spring
As for spring, at a time when vegetation precisely needs water, it turns out to be contrasting: while March has experienced some torrential rains from the Pyrénées-Orientales à l’Ardèche, and heavy rains in Aude, Hérault, southern Tarn, east of Corsica, the deficit exceeded 70 % north of the Seine.
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