In April, the rate reached 8.3 %, down 0.2 point compared to March.
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When the inflation figure for the month of April was published on Wednesday 11 May, attention logically paid the main figure: an annual increase of 8.3 %, slightly 0 , 2 points compared to the previous month, the peak of inflation may have been reached. But immediately, the economists warned on this figure deemed deceptive. “Do not be fooled by the annual figure of today’s price index. The monthly increase has been stronger than expected, with generalized price increases”, tweete Steven Rattner, former teams of Barack Obama.
“The underlying inflation [excluding food and energy] was very high in April, above its annual rate. This is the big news of the new inflation figure, even if the overall figure fell, “adds Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard and former economic advisor of Obama. Over one year, basic inflation, excluding energy and food, also drops to 6.2 %, compared to 6.5 % in March. But to know if the trend is really down, economists examine the trend in the month, and it is not very encouraging.
In detail, prices increased by 0.3 points compared to the previous month, compared to 1.2 points in March. But it is because the energy dropped, by 2.7 % in a month, in particular the price of gasoline which fell by 6 %. Outside energy and food, the increase is 0.6 points in one month, double the previous month. Prices are now soaring in the services (0.7 points a month), including transport: plane tickets have jumped 18 % in a month, unprecedented record, with the absorption of the pandemic which had Deflationist effects on services.
markets are perplexed
“This is the subject that must be worried: the inflation of the basic services has increased for four consecutive months,” notes Mr. Furman, who recalls that this sector weighs five times more than goods. The accommodation, in particular, represents a third of the basket and is now on a momentum which makes an improbable a rapid decline in inflation (0.5 point of increase in the month, 5.1 % over a year).
The financial markets, which dreamed of a day with a fanfare, were perplexed, not knowing if this figure, worse than expectations including in its main component, would lead to a tightening of credit conditions stronger than expected by the American federal reserve. The ten -year rates jumped 2.91 % to 3.08 % when the figure is published before falling around 2.97 %, while the stock market oscillated, going from red to green.
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