INSEE tables a modest growth of 2.6 % if the GDP remains sluggish over the second and third quarters. And inflation induces a loss of purchasing power of 1.5 % for the French.
by
Inflation which continues on its momentum, reaching up to 5.5 % in annual sliding in May-June, and growth of the order of 0.25 % in the second quarter: the conjunctors of INSEE do Do not want to talk about stagflation yet, as could let the zero growth recorded in the first quarter. “Our scenario is rather that of modest growth,” assured Julien Pouget, director of the Department of the Condition, Monday, May 9. Stagflation is characterized by “high inflation and an activity that stagnates in a sustainable way”, he recalled.
Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, also assured, Saturday, May 7, that this phenomenon, feared by economists, was not yet “our reference” in the euro zone. “Although the unusual degree of uncertainty can mean a combined slowdown in growth and high inflation, the current situation cannot be compared to that of the 1970s,” she said in an interview with Slovenian daily Delo .
Propagation
Stagflation or not, this first half of the year is in any case synonymous with loss of purchasing power for the French: the gross disposable income of households, calculated per unit of consumption (that is to say Taking into account the size of the households) fell 1.5 % in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. In the second quarter, it should cede another 0.5 % compared to the first three months of the year. The sharp drop in the first quarter is partly explained by the fact that the inflation compensation was paid at the end of December to the beneficiaries: by slightly inflating income from the end of the year, it accentuates the drop in power to ‘Purchase in the next quarter.
This decline would have been even sharper without the measures put in place to limit the impact of inflation on the budget of households, ensures INSEE: the “price shield” on the prices of energy and Gaz, as well as the pump, have made it possible to reduce inflation in France by two points since the beginning of the year. Without these measures, “inflation would exceed 7 %”, estimates the Institute of Statistics. But this impact is likely to be less in the coming weeks, because the rise in prices, initially focused on energy prices, is increasingly spreading to other consumption stations, and especially food.
You have 54.28% of this article to read. The continuation is reserved for subscribers.