Neither the popularity of Prime Minister Boris Johnson nor that of Brexit were at the center of the British local elections which took place Thursday, May 5. But, six years after the referendum which decided to divorce the European Union (EU), their results reflect both a certain disenchantment of the British with regard to their boiling leader and the dissatisfaction linked to the harmful economic consequences of the exit from the EU. Mr. Johnson’s conservative party has lost hundreds of seats in local assemblies, a number of his voters who preferred Labor or Liberal Democrats.
In London, of which Mr. Johnson was a popular mayor, several “boroughs” turned his back on him while, in the south of England, the Lib-Dem, pro-European, seduced former voters Conservative. Teries setbacks are less clear in the workers’ regions of northern England converted to Brexit by Mr. Johnson, who only return very partially to plowing.
Surveys, such as electoral door -to -door, confirm that the dissatisfaction linked to the dizzying prices – whose Brexit is considered partially responsible – and the functioning of the health system – which suffers, despite the promises Brexiters – have fed the defection of Torries. Added to this is the anger fueled by the holiday scandal watered with Downing Street during confinement.
earthquake
But this electoral setback would be little without the earthquake that risks the announced victory of the Sinn Fein nationalists in the elections of the Local Assembly of Northern Ireland. If the partial results are confirmed, the qualifier of “historic” will not be excessive. In 1921, in fact, the British had shared the island of Ireland and traced the borders of Northern Ireland so as to ensure a Protestant and Unionist majority, that is to say supporter of the maintenance within the UK. Since then, the executive implemented in Belfast has always been controlled by a Unionist party.
The accession to the head of this local executive of a party whose raison d’être is on the contrary the independence of the entire island vis-à-vis London, and therefore the dissolution of the ‘Northern Ireland, would appear all the more incredible as it is indirectly linked to Brexit, defended by the British government. The divorce from the European Union, which had been rejected in the 2016 referendum by 56 % of North Irish voters, engaged in a movement of distance from Great Britain, marked by the development of exchanges between the two parts of the island, to the detriment of those with Great Britain.
For Boris Johnson, the challenge is twofold: in the short term, the North Irish executive, already dysfunctional, risks being paralyzed by the possible refusal of the Unions to play the supporting roles behind the Sinn Fein. Such an impasse of democratic game could promote tensions. The British Prime Minister will also have to manage the consequences of the victory of a party which provides for a referendum on the reunification of Ireland – in other words, the amputation of the United Kingdom – in the next five to come.
such a prospect, potentially heavy with violence, is far from obvious. For the time being, a success of Sinn Fein would once again illustrate the irresponsibility of the promoters of Brexit. Boris Johnson, leader of the Conservative Party, dedicated to maintaining a British Northern Ireland, could be the man who will have favored the loss for the Kingdom.