Fall of maroupol, general offensive to the east or encirclement … What are the military options of Russia? What resistance are Ukrainians able to oppose? The point with military experts.
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Ukraine now lives pending the Russian offensive on the east of the country. A month and a half after the beginning of the war, Moscow was forced to review his initial strategy and focus on a smaller goal: the total donbass takeover, that the Ukrainian troops and their protracted separatist enemies share since 2014.
While some announce the next drop in the city of Maroupol, a strategic position in southern Donbass, kyiv several times called the population of the two regions of Donetsk and Louhansk to flee as soon as possible and prepares for several days. An imminent attack. What forms could take this offensive? What are the military options of Russia? What resistance are Ukrainians able to oppose? The point in cards with Vincent Tourret, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, and the Military Historian Michel Goya.
The new Russian strategy: take the donbass in pincelight
It is not impossible that the initial ambition of Moscow, seize Ukraine and control it in its entirety, remains the same. But two imperatives now inflect Russia’s strategy: the political maturities of the Kremlin, and the operational capacities of its army.
The Russian forces are worn by forty days of fighting. Some units, such as Kherson or near Kharkiv, can not leave their position, where they hold the forehead against Ukrainians, who do not lower weapons. Many suffered human and material losses. “They dilapidated their fight potential by tackling too many goals with too few ways for a month and a half, summarizes Vincent Tourret, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. They do not have a reserve because They had incur more than 80% of their strengths, including their best units, and a game is no longer operational, in the state. “
Although the units are not entirely destroyed, the losses of soldiers or the degradation of a portion of the material temporarily annihilate their operational capacities and oblige to reconstitute these units before engaging them again. To do this, it takes time – at least one week every time a unit suffers 10% losses, explains Michel Goya, historian and former military. However, the Russians lack precisely time.
Several analysts consider that President Vladimir Putin, buried against the fierce resistance of Ukrainians, wants to get gains before the military parade of May 9 marking the Soviet victory over the Nazis, in 1945. If the date is not necessarily intangible, “there is a sense of urgency, because the Kremlin wants, for political reasons, a victory to quickly present to his population, in particular to justify the losses”, insists Vincent Tourret.
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