The inflationary shock caused by the conflict further weakens the continent’s food security and may exacerbate social frustration.
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In Egypt, the price of non-subsidized bread has increased by 25% or even 50%, in some bakeries since the end of February. In Mali, the cost of cooking oil skyrockets. In South Africa, the government reflects on creating a cap of gas fare and rationing the amount of fuel sold to motorists.
Many African countries refused to rule on the Russian invasion in Ukraine, meaning that this war was not theirs. However, the continent already feels bitterly feels, through the increases in food and energy prices.
“and this shock could not arrive at a worst time, is sorry for the Africa Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Abebe Aemro Selassie. Two years of pandemic spurted households and the budgets of States. on The continent, today, resilience is very low. “
So, “Without being in the direct vicinity of the conflict, Africa is likely to suffer the consequences more harshly as elsewhere, because it comes out of the more fragile health crisis than other parts of the world, confirms Cécile Vaday, Analyst with the French Development Agency (AFD). The post-Covid recovery was not already very frank and budget vulnerabilities are high “.
Recurrent shortages
The main concern concerns the food security of the continent. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat and the fears of scarcity have been flaming the courses since the beginning of the conflict. North Africa is particularly exposed because of its dependence on imports. In Egypt, for example, where bread is an essential component of the population regime (102 million people), the country imports more than half of the wheat that it consumes. About 80% of these purchases come from the two belligerent countries.
As a response, the government temporarily prohibits exports of wheat, flour or lentils. He thinks mainly of expanding his subsidized bread device to which he already devotes more than 2.5 billion euros a year. The situation is equally complex in other countries in the region. In Tunisia, the margin of maneuver is narrow for a government that also subsidizes the price of the baguette, but must deal with an abyssal public deficit. Tunis ensures cereal stocks for three months. But the population is already confronted with recurring shortages of semolina or flour.
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