Economic and social issues remain priority for the French, according to the seventh Ipsos-Sopra Steria inquiry in partnership with CEVIPOF and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for “[Nute]”. In this context, Marine Le Pen detaches in second position behind Emmanuel Macron.
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Three weeks of the first round of the presidential election, the contours of the final begin to sketch. Two competitors stand out: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, as in 2017. This is one of the main teachings of the seventh wave of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Research Center. (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 13,749 people. The voting intentions in the first round are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, 8,790 people. Result: The margins for the first round are very low, between 0.1 and 1 point.
Preponderance of economic and social themes
The investigation was carried out from 10 to 14 March, about ten days after the previous investigation launched in addition to the sixth wave. As a result, the balance of power between the candidates does not change fundamentally.
Emmanuel Macron is still largely the race in mind, even if he knows a settlement of voting intentions. It loses 1.5 points and reaches 29% (margin of error of plus or minus 1 point). Nearly the double of Marine Le Pen, his first prosecutor.
In early March, the triggering of the war in Ukraine had strengthened Mr. Macron’s candidacy, the latter appearing as the guarantor of stability, since already in power.
However, if the war remains the second concern of the French and that it will play an important role in their choice of the first round, it is still far behind the purchasing power; For 53% of respondents, it is this question that worries them the most, compared to 44% for the war in Ukraine.
This preponderance of economic and social themes arrange Marine Le Pen, who has done one of its major axes. Moreover, the candidate of the national gathering (RN) has a 1.5 point increase since the previous wave. Its voting intentions reach 16% (margin of error of plus or minus 0.8 points). If it is far from Mr. Macron, she nevertheless comes off from the other pretender of her political camp, the Eric Zemmour polemist who remains 13% (margin of error of more or less 0.7 point).
Marine Le Pen better prepared
The latter knows, indeed, a stagnation of his campaign. Obviously tired, he spends a lot of time explaining and justifying his statements – prior to the war – Pro-Vladimir Putin and his refusal, then reluctance, to welcome Ukrainian refugees. The rally, advertised with great pomp, from Marion Marechal, the niece of Marine Le Pen and former member Front National (ancestor of the RN) of Vaucluse, so will have had no effect on the dynamics of Mr. Zemmour.
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