In an interview at the “World”, the economist Sergei Guriev, Professor at Sciences Po, stresses that Western sanctions can weaken the master of the Kremlin but will impoverish the Russian people, especially the least wealthy.
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Professor at Sciences Po, former Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Sergei Guriev was one of the economic advisers of Vladimir Putin in the early 2010s, before exile In France, worried about its safety, after criticizing the arrests of opponents of the re-election of the Russian President, in 2012. He explains why the latter underestimated Western penalties. And how, deprived of hydrocarbon money, he would still continue to continue the war and finance the repression in his country.
The magnitude of the reaction of Westerners, especially with the gel of the assets of the Russian central bank, surprised Vladimir Putin. Why?
Observe political polarization in the United States, the withdrawal of Afghanistan American troops [completed at the end of August 2021] and the lack of unity in Europe, he was convinced that the West was weak and divided. He thought that the invasion of Ukraine would be closed in a few days, like Crimea [in 2014], and that Western penalties would come late or not at all. He also underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and overestimated the strength of the Russian army.
This is not a bug, but a characteristic of the system that Vladimir Putin has built. He suppressed any dissenting voice around him, as in society. It is surrounded by people who are afraid to stand up. It receives from them only biased messages, drawing up the praise of the policies he leads and underestimating his opponents. He is badly informed. That explains why he takes these risks that seem irrational.
Faced with sanctions, Can the Russian economy hold Autarcie long?
Yes, even if it will be considerably weakened. It can especially hope to substitute some Western technologies with those designed in China. In this respect, two questions will be crucial. The first is that of hydrocarbons. If an embargo was imposed and that Russia no longer received money from gas and oil, it would face a major budget problem. Mr. Putin then struggled to pay his soldiers, the police who spend the tobacco protags and the propaganders, of which he has more than ever needed.
The second is that of China. Will it agree to support Moscow without reservation, or will it fear to be sanctioned in turn by the West, knowing that its prosperity depends on Europe, one of its main trading partners? China may not be as faithful as Mr. Putin hopes.
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