If most experts consider that the aggregated overall nuclear danger is needed by Moscow, concerns remain on certain categories of so-called “non-strategic weapons”, including Moscow in large quantities.
Since the beginning of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine, the nuclear threat has taken a considerable place in the conflict. Agitated on the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, she took a new acuteness with the attack led by Russia against a building of the central Zaporijia, one of the four Ukrainian plants, in the night of March 3rd to 4th. . The muscular declarations of these last days between Moscow and the Westerners reach a threshold ever seen since the crisis of the missiles of Cuba, in 1962. The ambiguities of the Russian doctrine and its large stocks of shorter nuclear weapons. , say “non-strategic”, maintain uncertainties, even though many experts relativize this nuclear threat.
“The Russians use nuclear to impress us, scare us, divide us”, summarizes Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FSR) and Dissu Issues Specialist. “So if the question is whether they are preparing to use nuclear weapons, for me, the answer is no. I do not see what would make this thesis forward. Do not worry about bad reasons, “considers Mr. Tertrais.
Among these misconceptions, according to the researcher, includes the thesis that Russia would have, in recent years, lowered its “thresholds” for use of the nuclear weapon, as in case of tactical defeat. An old idea that did particularly Florès from 2018, when the administration of former US President Donald Trump (2017-2021) produced an analysis of the Russian doctrine today beaten in breach. This analysis developed a so-called “escalation for de-escalation” theory, where the Trump administration believed that Russia was considering the “threat” of a nuclear climbing, or “the first” nuclear weapon. A means of winning the war, or at least to obtain more favorable output conditions – for example by deterring a belligerent from entering into this conflict.
“A form of feeling of confidence”
“The thresholds of nuclear use among Russians have been very specified in their doctrine published in 2010. For twenty years, Russia has raised the nuclear threshold, still insists Mr. Tertrais. For me, there is With less risks that the Russian army employs the nuclear weapon today that twenty years ago. “One of the main arguments pleading in this sense, according to the researcher, is the fact that the Russian army is in good Best condition today. Mr. Putin has, indeed, significantly modernized the Russian forces since 2010. “His success in Crimea in 2014, and in Syria from 2015 to support the regime of Bachar Al-Assad, contributed to a form of feeling of confidence. “, abounds Benjamin Hautecoveure, Master of Research at FRS.
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