According to a survey, the Russian offensive in Ukraine seems to have convinced a majority of Finnish to join the Atlantic Alliance. But the question always divides many parties.
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It would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. Monday, February 28, a survey conducted for the public chain YLE, between 23 and 25 February, at the beginning of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, revealed the tipping of Finnish public opinion. For the first time, a majority of respondents reported being favorable to the country’s 5.5 million inhabitants at the Atlantic Alliance, compared to 28% in mid-January.
Three days earlier, on February 26, a citizens’ initiative for the organization of a referendum on the entry of Finland in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) brought together Only five days, the 50,000 signatures necessary for his examination in Parliament. For his initiators, joining the Alliance “would considerably strengthen the credibility of the Finnish defense” and make any action by a foreign power “much more expensive and risky than it is today”.
It is in this context that the Social Democratic Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, brought together in Parliament, Tuesday, March 1, the leaders of all trainings to discuss the security policy and the rising debate on NATO. A question that divides many parties. The meeting took place in camera. At the exit, most leaders felt that the organization of a referendum, in the current situation, was not the best solution.
Sanna Marin mentioned, for his part, “the NATO option”, listed in the program of its coalition as of all previous ones since the 1990s. “This means that Finland can change opinion on the NATO membership, if the safe environment changes drastically. This has now happened. But the question must be treated with care, we do not rely our decisions on a survey, “she said.
Reinforced cooperation with the Atlantic Alliance
The day before, the president, Sali Niinistö, had warned on the Yle plateau: “We must remember that it is easy to feel that NATO membership will guarantee complete security (…) But we must also think of countermeasures. “Friday, the spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that a membership of Finland and Sweden” would have serious military consequences and policies, which would require [Russia] to take resets “.
In Helsinki, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, recalled that these statements were “not new” and did not in itself constitute a “military threat”. The head of the Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, made similar remarks in the past, as did the President, Vladimir Putin, during a visit to Finland, in July 2016. What has changed, on the other hand, noticed Tuesday Professor Mika Aaltola, Director of the Institute of International Affairs (FIII) in Helsinki, this is the context: “The relationship with Russia has collapsed. Many of what the Finnish stability policy was built has disappeared. It’s time to think about the foundations. “
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