The war in Ukraine and the nuclear threats of Vladimir Putin aim to terrorize the Ukrainians and to scare the Westerners. They strike the balance of forces across Eurasia, explains the historian in an interview at the “World”.
Gathered by Marc Semo
Director of IFRI (French Institute of International Relations), the historian Thomas Gomart, including author of invisible wars (Tallandier, “Texto”, 2021), analyzes Vladimir Putin’s strategy and its impact on global equilibrium Is
Is the invasion of Ukraine a “total war” different from other conflicts that have shaken Eastern Europe since the end of the cold war?
On the strictly military level, it aims to create the “shock and fright”. It is a turning point because of the magnitude of the military means and the political conduct of the war. Permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Nuclear and Space Power of First Plan, Russia is acting Ukraine in its entirety, eight years after annexed Crimea and destabilized Donbass.
Since 2014, Russia has mainly leads invisible wars, that is, under the level of war, by indirect means. This now characterizes it is the combination of hybridity – cyber at high dose, misinformation, special operations, military coercion, while playing diplomacy – and the large-scale mechanized invasion of its neighbor. Vladimir Putin threat “Consequences like he has never seen in his history” Any country that would put himself across his way. In doing so, the Russian President delivers an explicit nuclear message, but also attracts our attention to space or high seas.
Is the risk real?
Obviously. First of all for the Ukrainians, who play the survival of their state, and their independence. Then this war already has multiple effects, including changing nuclear grammar. For France, the nuclear weapon is fundamentally a weapon of non-employment. However, nuclear doctrines from other countries, such as Russia, have been changing for several years by considering forms of nuclear battle, that is, possible tactical uses of the weapon. It must also lead us to think laterally, that is to say “these things that no one has ever known” mentioned by Vladimir Putin.
In November 2021, Russia has, by a missile shot, destroyed one of its old satellites to show that it was now ready for war in or via exo-atmospheric space. Thus, she shows her refusal to see her territory constantly scanned by Westerners. What would be the consequences of the destruction of an X number of satellites that would make us blind and deaf? What would be the consequences of the cutoff, for example, 20% of submarine cables where data are transiting? We do not know it.
You have 77.96% of this article to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.