The transport of fuel by the brotherhood pipeline is experiencing an increase in activity.
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The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army, since February 24, did not prevent the gas trade. On the contrary, the transport of fuel by the Brotherhod pipeline (“fraternity”) has increased in recent days. This long pipe share from Russia to the countries of the European Union (EU), through Ukrainian soil. At the crossing point between the city of Oujhorod (Ukraine) and Slovakia, for example, the volume of deliveries for the EU more than doubled: 851 gigawatt hours (GWH) as of February 28, compared to 372 GWH on February 23, according to The data from the European Association of Gas Transportation Network Managers.
The rise primarily responds to a market logic, according to several observers. It can be explained in particular by the fact that European companies continue to use their long-term contracts concluded over several years with Russian Gazprom. Above all, if these contracts guarantee prices lower than those, moreover, from the “spot” market, where the gas is traded day-to-day and continues to exceed 100 euros of megawattish. Be six times more than a year ago.
On February 24, the price of the “spot” climbed up to 135 euros, without however reaching the recent peaks of December 2021. At the beginning of the war, “the market has anticipated that everything cuts off. , and then he calmed down, because the fundamentals of supply and demand are always there, “says Nicolas Leclerc, founder of the Omnegy broker, evoking” still very volatile prices “.
A lack of anticipation
Thierry Bros, Professor at Sciences Po Paris, reproach the European companies a lack of anticipation. According to him, they should have increased further in January, rather than having to compensate for an earlier underinvestment. “In January, it seems that utilities [Public Service Companies] made a calculation.” By underestimating “the risk of war and the problem of supply security”.
The volumes and amounts of long-term contracts remain confidential. Contacted, the French group ENGIE (ex-GDF SUEZ) refrains from communicating on its only supplies. One thing is certain: Unlike Germany, France does not have Russia for the main gas supplier (17% of its raw entries in 2020), but Norway (36%).
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