The Russian invasion has caused an epidermal reaction of investors, while many raw materials were already overheating.
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The launch of the Ukraine offensive orchestrated by Vladimir Putin, Thursday, February 24, has set up the commodity markets. Wheat and aluminum even beat historical records. The barrel of Brent, who has passed the $ 100 mark (89.20 euros), a higher since 2014, or that of rapeseed, have just so flamed.
An epidermal reaction of investors, while many raw materials were already overheating. But which also proves the strategic weight of Russia and Ukraine in the global economic game. Even the dependencies of Westerners with Russian resources. The most important being gas-linked, but also, to a lesser extent, oil, the first source of currency for Moscow.
“Energy is the sector most affected by the geopolitical situation,” says Philippe Chalmin, Professor at Paris-Dauphine University. When presenting its Cyclope report, annual barometer of the world markets raw materials, at the end of January, it had predicted that “if Russia invaded Ukraine the barrel of oil would explode the ceiling of the $ 100”. However, the black gold course relaxed somewhat, after the promise made by the US President Joe Biden, to draw on the US oil strategic reserves to temper rising fuels across the Atlantic.
“Breaking streams and delivery fault”
The course of wheat was propelled, Thursday at midday, at an unprecedented price, at 344 euros per tonne, before closing at 316.50 euros on the European market Euronext. In Chicago, the increase has reached the maximum authorized by the market mechanisms, or 5.7%, and the wheat bushel traded at $ 9.3475. Since 2018, Russia has become the largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine, in fourth position, still has nearly 6 million tonnes of wheat and 15 million tonnes of maize ready to be shipped to the four corners. from the planet.
“In a very factual way, logistics flows across the Black Sea are arrested. There are no more exports possible from Russia and Ukraine. So there is a breaking of flows, but also a Failure to deliver what has been contractualized. Markets are growing, “says Michel Portier, Agritel Cabinet. It remains to be seen whether the French wheat would benefit. “We could find opportunities like that of Algeria, a country that turned away from France for geopolitical reasons,” says Portier. The worry of the markets also focuses on future grain crops. The issue of access to nitrogen fertilizers, whose cost has tripled, directly related to the dazzling Gas price increase, is crucial. The dependence on Russia is strong, but also to Belarus, for potash.
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