Tribune. Economic activity seems to leave in France thanks to the economic recovery and the intervention of the State during the health crisis. The gross domestic product (GDP), after – 8% in 2020, rebounded to 7% in 2021 and could stabilize at 3.2% in mid-2022, according to INSEE, which is a very good sign for Our economy. The margin of non-financial enterprises amounted to 34.2% in 2021. This unpublished and very encouraging rate could be beneficial for economic growth and employment, provided that it is accompanied by a widespread increase in wages.
Household consumption remains dynamic over the same period. These various factors suggest a growth in private investment and a reduction in unemployment for 2022. As for prices, their increase fears the return of inflation. The inflation rate could exceed the threshold of 3% in 2022 and diminish the competitiveness of the French economy. Indeed, the external accounts do not recover; On the contrary, they degrade. The deficit of the trade balance reached 84.7 billion euros in 2021. The exports still fail to cover imports despite all the social and fiscal aid granted to the public authorities during the CVVID-19 crisis.
This commercial deficit reflects the poor performance of our economy compared to foreign competition. It is explained by the sharp rise in the cost of imports inherent in the rise in the price of oil and raw materials. It is also explained by the increase in imports of equipment, metallurgical and manufactured products, linked to the global economic recovery. This degradation is paradoxical. It is both good news, reflecting an inner demand upward thanks to consumption despite a return of inflation. And bad news, emphasizing, within the country, the almost non-existence of the industry in the capital goods sector.
Short-term profitability
Indeed, the theory of comparative advantages, based on the doctrine of free trade, pushed the French economy to specialize in the most profitable productions and to import those less. This industrial strategic choice has made our economic system strongly dependent on many products manufactured abroad, particularly in China, while it had all the potential to produce them on the territory.
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