According to the latest projections, the number of new daily hospitalizations could rise to 500 on February 27, compared to 1,570 on the 11th of this month.
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In its latest epidemiological projections, posted Wednesday, February 16, the Institut Pasteur anticipates, for the next two weeks, a sharp decrease in admissions to the hospital, at the national level and in metropolitan areas. “I’m rather optimistic for future weeks,” says Simon nightmez, who coordinated this work. In fact, the last statements of the Minister of Health seem to open a more breathable horizon. “In mid-March, if hospitals are in normal working state, and if the circulation of the virus is very low, we will be able to remove the masks for adults and children, for all or part of the closed places, including without Pass, “said Olivier Véran, Wednesday, on Franceinfo.
Friday, February 11, 1,570 new daily admissions to the hospital (conventional hospitalizations and critical care) were identified. By February 27, this number could be divided by three, reaching about 500 new admissions, provides for the Institut Pasteur. Daily admissions to critical care, they could go from 200 to about 70. The beds occupied in conventional hospitalization, more than 17,000, would increase about 8,000. And the lies occupied in critical care of about 3,200 to 1,800. Only downside, “our model has tended to underestimate the durations of stays lately, which could make it too optimistic about the declining of the busy beds,” says Simon Cauchemez.
These short-term projections are based on two main indicators: the dynamics of the number of cases, and the percentage of tests (PCR or antigenics) positive. The researchers run in parallel six different statistical models and they make an average, “which allows to smooth the limits of each model,” explains the researcher.
More “Forecast”, but ” Scenarios “
Current 2021, the Institut Pasteur’s team assessed the performance of this approach by comparing projections in the number of critical care beds to actual hospitalization data: “for example, at the national level, the error is 6% for a seven-day and 9% projection for a spraying at fourteen days. “
In addition to these statistical models, which anticipate short-term hospitalizations, researchers use mathematical models to study how the epidemic could evolve in the longer term. An exercise that uses many assumptions about the impact of sanitary measures, changes in behavior in the face of evolution of the epidemic, the climate, the level of immunity in the population, the characteristics of emerging variants … ” Given these many assumptions, we are no longer talking about forecasts but of scenarios, “says Simon nightmez. To these challenges was added a disruptive element: Omicron, which grafted in December 2021 on the strong wave of the Delta variant. At the time, his severity remained uncertain, the scenarios remained very open; But in early January, they refined, Omicron confirming its very strong transmissibility and its reduced severity.
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