The Kremlin took the Westerners by surprise by announcing the departure of certain units. At the same time, in a well-orchestrated military-political choreography, deputies demanded the recognition of Donbass’s independence.
by ,
Faced with the contradictory signals sent by Moscow, Westerners redouble prudence on the chances of de-escalation in Ukraine. “The lyrics, it’s good, but we are waiting for actions,” said Tuesday, February 15, the leader of French diplomacy Jean-Yves le Drian. By announcing the return to their garrisons of certain units deployed along the Ukrainian border, Tuesday, the Kremlin took the Westerners by surprise and, by this first act, wanted to pass a message. As they feared a Russian offensive around February 16, according to the information transmitted by the United States, Russia decided what could be the beginning of military withdrawal, signaling a relaxation.
Except that at the same time, in a well-orchestrated military-political choreography, the members of the Duma (the lower chamber of the Russian parliament) called the Kremlin to recognize the independence of the territories Prorusses of the East Ukraine (Donbass). An equally clear message: Moscow’s political lever in his arm of iron with the West, the recognition of the republics of Donetsk and Lougansk, at the heart of the clashes orchestrated by Moscow between the Ukrainian army and the separatists since 2014, would mark de facto The end of the peace process in Ukraine.
The Duma initiative remains a simple resolution, without concrete involvement. But by calling for these two territories to become “autonomous, sovereign and independent states”, the members de facto call into question the current negotiations. The Minsk agreements, under Franco-German mediation, provide for the return of Donetsk and Lougansk under the control of Kiev. The revival of these discussions is one of the achievements of Emmanuel Macron after visiting the Kremlin, Monday, February 7th.
The French president had then entrusted that the Duma project would not succeed. “He asked Vladimir Putin not to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lougansk. The Russian President said that it was a parliamentary initiative that he did not approve,” said the Elysée on Tuesday. . A version that has not been confirmed by the Kremlin. Dmitri Peskov, the spokesman for Vladimir Putin, merely asserted that there is “no official decision”. And, maintaining the blur, he recalled that the Duma “reflects the opinion of the population”.
Contradictory messages
“This allows Moscow to play on two paintings and tell Westerners:” We are ready for de-escalation but, if the negotiations fail, we have in reserve the card of the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk. ” Would be a real blow for the West, warns Andrei Kortounov, director of the Russian Council, a Think Tank on international questions in Moscow. Nobody knows what happens in Putin’s head but, with these two new shots, he continues his chess part. “
You have 72.9% of this article to be read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.