Tribune. The spectacular figure of growth of 2021 – nearly 7% – created a kind of euphoria. Certainly, commentators are aware of the exceptional character, not to say artificial, of this figure. It reflects the return, thanks to vaccination, to the situation before CVIV-19. The third quarter GDP 2021 just found the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.
Nevertheless, other figures make it possible to have 2021 a positive image, such as that of the unemployment rate, descended below 8% for the first time since 2008. However, it is a figure that happened rather Unnoticed and who has reason to worry, namely the deficit of our current balance of payments.
In 2020, this deficit was 44 billion euros, or 1.9% of GDP, approaching the 1982 ratio, when it was 2.1% of GDP and where the government had been obliged to initiate the rigor policy to avoid using the International Monetary Fund. Before 1982, you have to go back to 1951 to find a higher figure (4% of GDP).
Or, the year 2021 did not translate significant change in this area. Commenting in July 2021 our degraded external accounts, the governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy of Galhau, highlighted the special character of 2020: “We have suffered from our two points of excellence that are aeronautics and tourism.” But it recalled that this degradation is old, adding, with respect to the beginnings of 2021, which have not been marked by any significant improvement over 2020: “Since our cost competitiveness has recovered (over a long period) it can be judged as a little disappointing performance. “
France in the countries held
To understand what this state of affairs means, it is necessary both to measure the consequences and identify the remedies. The immediate consequence is that France is obliged to sell its real estate and financial heritage to finance its external deficits. This led to this result that what is called the net external position of France – that is to say the difference between the value of what the French hold abroad and that of the foreigners hold in France – is more and more negative.
You have 63.24% of this article to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.