71% of respondents say they are “interested” by the vote of April 10 and 24, compared to 81% in February 2017, reveals the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF ) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for “Le Monde”.
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Two months of the first round of the presidential election, the election campaign still does not hang. This is one of the main lessons of the fifth wave of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde.
This study was conducted from 3 to 7 February, a period that was particularly intense for the extreme right: Eric Zemmour benefited from several rallying from the National Gathering (RN) of Marine Le Pen. The two candidates also held meetings on the same day, Saturday, February 5th. On the left also things have moved with a slight dynamic around the communist (PCF) Fabien Roussel.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 12,499 people. The voting intentions in the first round are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, 7,741 people. Result: The error margins for the first round are very low, between 0.2 and 1 point.
When reading the survey results, a kind of “2002 syndrome” seems to dominate, for the moment, a campaign where resignation and decline in the interest of voters. Twenty years ago, it was admitted to two months from the deadline that the final would play between Jacques Chirac, outgoing president and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. Everything seemed played in advance. Finally, with a record abstention of 28.4% and a scattering of the left voices, it is Jean-Marie Le Pen who qualifies.
The current situation is very similar. The outcome already appears known. Still not officially candidate, Emmanuel Macron appears insured to qualify in the first round despite his decline in a point compared to January (24% of the voting intentions, margin of error of more or less 1 point, far before Valérie Pécresse and Its 15.5%, margin of error of more or less 0.8 point) and to win at the second (winner he is facing Valérie Pécresse, in Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour).
Thus, the victory prognosis of the Head of State amounts to 63% of the interviewees, or 4 more points than in January. As a comparison, 15% of respondents think the same for Valérie Pécresse, parties candidate the Republicans (LR), and they fall to 14% for Marine Le Pen and 9% for Eric Zemmour.
Tight game for second place
Consequence of this feeling of knowing the end of history: the interest in the presidential election is certainly high, logical for this major Surtin, but there are ten points lower than five years ago. 71% of respondents say they are “interested” by the vote on April 10 and 24, compared to 81% in February 2017. In 2012, this rate also swelled around the 80% mark, according to different studies. Logically, there are more, today, “moderately interested” people (21% against 14%) and “not interested” (8% against 5%). In the same way, the intention to vote in the first round remains stable compared to January with 77% (65% some of them to vote, 12% almost some) but is five points lower than in February 2017. Potential abstention, it is 23%, compared with 18% in February 2017. In the end, the abstention in the first round was 22.2% in 2017, 20.5 in 2012, 16.2% in 2007 but 28.4% in 2002.
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