In the face of the huge reserves of the country, the global energy giants are trying to revive projects weighing billions of euros.
Le Monde with AFP
Plipped for nearly a year in the uncertain wait for a quiet return after a major jihadist attack, the world energy giants in the Rich Natural Gas Reserves of Mozambique are trying to revive projects weighing billions.
The CEO of Totalnergies, Patrick Pouyanné, met Monday 31 January the Mozambican President, Filipe Nyusi, in Maputo. The two men rebuilt the same observation for months: the security context does not allow to revive the project of 16.5 billion euros on the Indian Ocean.
At the French giant, the subject is described as “sensitive”, the communication is closely controlled. A security source, however, confirmed to the AFP of recent movements on the previously unfinished site of Afungi, where maintenance has resumed. The discovery in 2010 of the largest natural gas reserves of sub-Saharan Africa had shimmed in Mozambique a place among the top ten global exporters.
The Muslim Province of Cabo Delgado (Northeast) was born three megaprojects: Mozambique LNG, Consortium operated by TotalEnergies, Rovuma LNG led by the American Exxonmobil and Coral-sul FLNG led by Italian ENI .
Gas liquefaction in the open sea
At the end of March 2021, a surprise attack on the small coastal town of Palma suspended until further notice the huge total project, located just a few kilometers away. “TotalEnergies must come back this year if he wants to reach his new production objective in 2026”, says to Maputo the researcher of the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), Namirre Borges.
One of the three projects today seems to be able to draw his pin of the game. Italian Eni, who has bet on the liquefaction of gas in the open sea, stated to AFP maintain its production target in the second Semester 2022.
The Coral Sul ship, the first natural gas liquefaction platform deployed in the deep water of the African continent, with an annual production capacity of 3.4 million tonnes, has arrived off Mozambique in January. On the security issue, the company at the head of the project of 6.2 billion euros simply ensures “working closely with the government”.
According to specialists, Eni’s offshore operations are at lower risk. “The risks of attacks at sea are very low. In four years of violence, there was no attack at sea except for a few fishermen near the coast,” says Nhairre.
Classic guerrillat tactical
The ExxonMobil project is at the dead point. The construction of an annual capacity of 15.2 million tonnes has not started and the US group does not seem to want to move before improving the context.
“Maputo is determined to see these projects succeed, the government needs money,” says Alexandre Raymakers, Analyst at the British Risk Consulting Cabinet Verisk Maplecroft. The government lorks billions of annual revenue through gas projects, a manne for the country whose GDP is about 13 billion euros.
For six months, the Mozambican army in difficulty is supported by at least 3,000 soldiers from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda. “The arrival of regional troops has allowed Maputo to break the rise of violence, but it is unlikely to take over in the next twelve months,” says Raymakers. According to him, the regional forces do not have the means: “limited air support, few helicopters, it is mainly light infantry.”
And jihadists have adapted since their arrival: from the neighboring province of Niassa, they lead sporadic attacks now modeled on a classic guerrilla tactic. In January, the Acled NGO identified some thirty violent incidents.
Filipe Nyusi ensures progress in the war against jihadists. But according to the observers, the root of the problem is elsewhere. At about 2,000 kilometers from Maputo, the province of Cabo Delgado is one of the poorest: the lack of infrastructure and opportunities for young people has created a resentment that meets the ranks of armed groups.