The threat of a new Russian military intervention in Ukraine plane on the bilateral meeting in Geneva, Monday. Publicly, Russia refuses to make the slightest concession on its requests, including the end of any expansion of NATO.
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Russia has a hand, but what will she do? After deploying 100,000 soldiers along the Ukrainian border, Moscow has been opening up a rare diplomatic space to address security issues in Europe and in its neighborhood, in accordance with its aspirations. Is the Kremlin interested in a peaceful resolution of tensions, on the basis of compromise, or will it prefer accomplished and strength? It is on the other hand on the Russian priorities that a crucial week of negotiations, both for the territorial integrity of Ukraine – or what remains, after the annexation of the Crimea (2014) and the destabilization of the Donbass – and for the balance of forces on the continent.
One week that the United States addressed in a difficult position. The whole strategy of President Joe Biden, for a year, of limiting the topics of crisis with Russia to better focus on China, seems proven. Even inside NATO, the hypothesis of a compromise with Moscow, on the back of Kiev, moved the Baltic countries and Poland. The rapid deployment of nearly 3,000 Russian soldiers in Kazakhstan, as part of the Organization of the Collective Safety Treaty (OTSC), does not affect Russia’s intervention capabilities in Ukraine, even if it complicates the given. On the other hand, he confirms Moscow’s ambition to weigh on the destiny of his neighbors, despite very diverse national dynamics, thus denying the right to Kiev to choose his orientation.
The decisive meeting of the week is that of Geneva, Monday, January 10, as part of the bilateral dialogue of strategic stability. This one was initiated in mid-June, in the same Swiss city, by Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. Since then, two sessions between experts took place in July and September, leading to the constitution of working groups. “There is room for compromises, but many will depend on the attitude of Russia,” says Rose Gottemoeller, former US Secretary of State for Armaments (2014-2016). The mobilization of its troops is like a dagger borne by the other party. Will the Russians look for a common ground or repeating their unacceptable requests, such as formal renunciation at any expansion of NATO? When a country is engaged in The diphilate of megaphone, I suspect it not to negotiate in good faith. What helps is that the two chief negotiators know very well and worked together on Iranian nuclear power. “
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