Analysts called the chief financial and economic trend of 2022. In their opinion, expressed in conversations with “Tape.ru”, it could be the tightening of monetary policy by Central Banks of different countries.
Vladislav Danilov from “Sberhold Asset Management” believes that the new trends in the New Year will be the long-awaited tightening of the Fed monetary policy (at the moment its rate continues to hold at a level of 0-0.25 percent) and the growth of investors’ interest in China.
Alexander Bakhtin from BCS World Investment believes that not only the Fed, but most of the world’s central banks will switch to the rates cycle, trying to prevent further increase in prices and overheating of the economy.
In turn, the analyst “Finama” Olga Belenkaya considers the chief trend of the new year the restoration of the global economy. “The main trend of 2020 was a crisis caused by a pandemic; Trend 2021 – the rapid restoration of demand and unexpectedly scale and duration inflation. The main trend of next year can be the return of the global economy to a more stable trajectory after the coronacrisis. Hard return to post-person normality,” – She said.
In December 2021, the Russian Central Bank has raised a key rate to 8.5 percent per annum. Thus, over the year, the increase was 4.25 percentage points. At the same time, the head of the Elvira Nabiullina regulator said that the Central Bank will be ready to return the key bet to the neutral range of 5-6 percent not earlier than 2023.
In turn, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) of the United States since the spring of 2020 retains the base rate at a level of 0-0.25 percent. Currently, the Fed conducts a mining program of quantitative mitigation providing for the purchase of corporate and treasury bonds – through a gradual reduction in procurement. The bid of the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintained at a zero level. In December, the regulator began to “soft tightening” policies by turning the quantitative mitigation program.