Overseas, the recovery was hampered by persistent industry supply disruptions and sanitary restrictions related to the CVIV-19 pandemic.
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Slowly but surely, the German economy stands up from the great recession of 2020 generated by the Pandemic of Covid-19. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Euro zone’s first economy increased by 2.7% in 2021, Destatis announced, the National Statistical Office, Friday, January 14. Nominal growth is certainly important, but no reason to rejoice: this increase in GDP remains insufficient to compensate for the stall of 4.6% recorded in 2020. In 2021, the level of production national has remained 2% below that of 2019.
An international comparison is enough to understand the persistent difficulties of the fourth world economy. Germany has a significantly lower GDP increase than that of its European partners. According to the European Commission’s forecasts, cited by destatis, the rebound is much more important in France (+ 6.5%), in Italy (+ 6.2%) and Spain (+ 4.6%). Certainly, these three countries had wiped back stronger than Germany in 2020, but the latter is clearly below the European average and the euro zone (+ 5% in 2021). Above all, the contrast with the United States is painful: the US economy had fallen less strongly in 2020 (- 3.4%), but its recovery in 2021 is much more vigorous (+ 5.8%).
The main cause is Germany’s strong exposure to foreign trade, making it more sensitive than others to current disturbances of supply chains. Despite full order notebooks, the industry fails to meet demand, due to shortages of raw materials and electronic components such as fleas, which have reached a historically high level.
Robust labor market
The shortage indicator calculated by the IFO Economic Institute has largely exceeded the peak reached during the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis, which shot the prices up. The industry, key sector of the German economy, has certainly progressed (+ 4.4% compared to 2020), but not enough. The bottlenecks also concerned the transport problems, in particular maritime, decisive for the “made in Germany”, emphasizes destatis.
These effects combined with restriction measures against the pandemic imposed in 2021, which affected consumption. In the first quarter, Germany was in almost confinement, with shops, restaurants, hairdressers and closed schools or restricted operations. The net resumption of activity in spring and summer was stopped by the return of infections and restrictions in the fall.
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