Due to geopolitical tensions and production interruptions, the Brent and WTI prices reached respectively 88.13 and $ 85.74 on Tuesday morning. For many analysts, crude barrel prices could soon exceed 90 dollars.
Le Monde with AFP
Oil prices continue flight. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel price reached $ 85.74, Tuesday, January 18, its highest level since October 2014. A little earlier, the Brent traded $ 88.13 per barrel, thus exceeding largely its October 2014 level ($ 86.74). It is then descended below 88 dollars.
Several factors contribute to this new rise in oil prices, including the production interruptions “in Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Ecuador and, more recently, in Canada due to extreme cold”, according to Hussein Sayed, Analyst at Exinity.
Added to this are geopolitical tensions in several regions of the globe. Monday, Houthist Yemeni rebels have for example attacked civilian facilities in the United Arab Emirates, killing three people. A military coalition under Saudi Commandement rossed by air raids on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in the hands of the Hushists. Washington has also promised to “be” accountable to the Yemeni rebels, which are supported by Iran. These events “have further boosted oil prices, reports the Analyst of ING Warren Patterson.
Looks are also focused on the persistent threat of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia. With new disturbances of the Russian gas supply of Europe, energy prices, and therefore crude, could still increase, according to some analysts. Indeed, an increase in natural gas prices, such as that since several months, contributes to increasing the “demand for diesel and fuel oil in replacement of natural gas, wherever possible”, according to Bjarne Schieldrop, Analyst at SEB , and thus to push the rising prices.
A barrel at 100 euros is no longer uninvishable
“Only OPEC members and their allies can lower prices at this stage by pumping more crude”, Updes Hussein Sayed. But, for months, the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) and its partners (OPEC +) – including Russia – only marginal increases in their extraction objectives and struggle to reach them, which does not Should not help meet the needs or lower prices.
Saudi Arabia had asserted at the beginning of the year that compliance with the agreement and ceilings was essential. In other words, members with a reserve capacity can not and should not intervene to compensate for the lack of production of members who are unable to achieve their goals.
Numerous analysts are now expecting to see the prices of the barrel of crude oil exceed $ 90, or even the $ 100, which still seemed impossible to consider a few months ago. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts see the Brent reach $ 96 this year, then $ 105 in 2023, according to a note published Monday.