According to a study to be appeared on the website of the Council of Economic Analysis, France avoided nearly 4,000 deaths and the loss of 6 billion euros between July and December 2021, while winning thirteen vaccine coverage points .
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How to measure the concrete impact of the introduction of the sanitary pass? Certainly, the vaccination rate of the French population increased from 53.8%, in mid-July 2021, now 79.5% of people who have received at least one dose of vaccine, but what part of this impressive increase can to be directly attributed to this new daily tool? In addition, is this impact only sanitary or other aspects of society have benefited from this measure, particularly criticized for its liberticide aspect?
A study conducted by a dozen researchers has looked at these different issues and shows the strong impact of the passenger pass on vaccine accession, the number of hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19, as well as on the gross domestic product (GDP).
This study, to appear on Tuesday, January 18 on the website of the Economic Analysis Council (CAE), a service attached to Matignon but bringing together independent academics, was co-written by the Miquel Oliu-Barton mathematician (Paris- Dauphine, Esade Center for Economic Policy of Barcelona) and economist Bary Pradelski (CNRS, Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance) with epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council Arnaud Fontanet and Economists Philippe Aghion (College de France) and Patrick Artus (Natixis). It is based on the comparative study of three countries that have adopted systems equivalent to the healthcare during the summer of 2021: France, Germany and Italy.
Heterogeneous results
To assess the impact of the pass, the authors have built models that the immunization dynamics would have been without these devices called Green Pass in Italy or “2G” rule in Germany for GeiMPFT (vaccinated) or Genesen ( cured).
If the results are heterogeneous according to the countries, they are, in all cases, important: in a little less than six months, these passes have increased the rate of vaccination of thirteen points in France, of 9, 7 points in Italy and 6.2 points in Germany. Depending on the model, the immunization coverage would have been, without these devices, by 65%, 70% and 67% of the respective populations of these countries. Important point for the saturation of hospital services, this increase in accession through the pass is also observed in over 60 years; France has earned 8.9 coverage points on this population and Italy, 4.4 points.
“We did not necessarily expect an impact of the passage as important, based on the published studies before the ads. On the other hand, an investigation. Public health France suggested a major effect of the sanitary pass in the French decision to be vaccinated, “says Miquel Oliu-Barton.
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