Vis-à-vis Marine Le Pen, the classic line appears flawered in two blocks, despite real convergences of ideas. And LR voters prefer the RN to Eric Zemmour, according to the Kantar Public Barometer for “Le Monde” and FranceInfo.
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The data analysis of the Kantar public barometer for Le Monde and FranceInfo, published on Monday 17 January, has something to put a little balm to the heart in Valérie Pécresse: if his supporters actually share a good part of the ideas of the gathering National (RN), a small half of its potential electorate always sees a danger in a victory of Marine Le Pen – and even more in an election of Eric Zemmour. If many Voters of the Republicans (LRs) are rather favorable to alliances with the far-right party, the LR candidate seems better able to represent them in the presidential election.
The convergences between the sympathizers of LR and the RN are indeed numerous. They are roughly agreeing that French or binical jihadists must be fallen from their nationality (94% for LR, 95% for the RN); They all judge that justice is not severe enough with small offenders (87% against 92%), they feel that traditional values (91% compared to 93%, – 12 points more for LR since 2021).
There is also no considerable gap between the sympathizers of the LR who wish the prohibition of the Islamic veil in the public space (73%) and the sympathizers of the RN (86%), and a majority of In between them, although with a difference of 20 points, also feel that there are too many immigrants in France (94% for the RN, 75% for LR, but up 8 points in one year). On the other hand, the question of Europe still separates the two families of nearly 25 points.
The idea of agreements is progressing
If the two electorates are close to the sympathizers of the LR the question of the perception of the RN. Only 29% of French people agree with frontal ideas, five points more than after the failure of Marine Le Pen in 2017, but the rate is not much higher among LR sympathizers (36% ) In the same way, 44% of the sympathizers of LR think that the national gathering represents a danger, like 48% of the French, and 52% do not think it: there is a bitch within the classical right. Finally 23% (- 5 points) of the French consider that the Party the Republicans must combat the formation of Marine Le Pen, a proportion that falls to 15% among the sympathizers of LR (18 points less than in 2021) – and They were 34% in June 2002, when Jacques Chirac was at the Elysee.
“32% of LR sympathizers are planning to vote for the RN in the future. In total, it is 42% of them who have already voted for the NR or consider doing it,” says Emmanuel River, the International Director of Public Kantar Political Studies. Remains the question of electoral alliances. One third of the sympathizers LR seem ready to take the plunge, and the idea progresses: 47% of them feel that it is possible to establish circumstance or global agreements with the RN, or 14 points more than in 2021 – No doubt because of the refocused image of Marine Le Pen, especially in comparison with that of Eric Zemmour.
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