Washington is a supporter of “hard” measures in case of aggression on Ukraine. Europeans fear consequences for their businesses.
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If she wishes, Russia has many military options to hit Ukraine. In the opposite direction, the United States and Europeans have a wide range of economic sanctions to answer. It is still necessary to get along about them. This is the central point of ongoing consultations between capitals, while a new intense sequence is on attempting to avoid the worst.
“The diplomacy is not dead,” he says. The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, spoke, Tuesday, January 18, with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The two men will meet in Geneva, January 21, Moscow waiting for a formal response to its strategic security treaties in Europe and NATO enlargement. Previously, Mr. Blinken will be in Kiev on Wednesday to reassure the Ukrainian authorities on American support, then in Berlin on Thursday. The position of the new German coalition on sanctions – and in particular on the North Stream 2 pipeline, long presented as an exclusively commercial project, without geopolitical dimension – is an essential issue for the United States.
Washington continues its diplomatic strategy since November 2021, when the Biden administration has alerted upstream on the Russian military mobilization at Ukraine’s borders. And no sign of de-escalation is emerging, on the contrary. Russian troops and equipment began to be transferred to Belarus, officially for a joint military exercise, of a defensive nature, expected from 10 to 22 February. The Russian Deputy Minister of Defense, Alexandre Fomine, cited the sending of twelve Sukhoi SU-35 hunters, two S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems and a Pantir missile battery. “This is neither an exercise nor a normal movement of troops”, explains a manager of the US State Department, judging this “force demonstration” extremely dangerous. The other concern, in the medium term, would concern the deployment of Russian conventional and nuclear weapons in Belarus, thanks to a constitutional reform in February.
“Extremely dangerous situation”
Washington warned against the possible creation of a false pretext, by Russia, to justify an operation in Ukraine in the coming weeks. “We are at a stage where Russia can launch an attack in Ukraine at any time,” said White House Jen Psaki spokesman, speaking of an “extremely dangerous situation”. The United States multiplies contacts with the allies, not to appear locked in a head-to-face with Moscow. American officials repeat the same formula: “Nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about Europe without the Europeans.” In a note published on January 10, the Biden administration had summarized all the international interviews recently organized on The Russian file, by the President himself, his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken and the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The number makes sense, but does not say everything.
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