In the face of a sustained demand despite the pandemic, the supply of black gold producing countries is struggling to follow, and political tensions fuel uncertainties. The increase could continue the months to come.
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There is something to wake up the movement of “yellow vests” in the winter 2018-2019, even without carbon tax on automobile fuels. Pump prices continue to increase and have reached historical records during the week completed on January 9, according to weekly data from the Ministry of the Ecological Transition. The diesel liter was an average of 1.62 euro, that of lead-free gasoline 95 E10 1,68 euro and SP 98 1,77 euro. This situation may last – even worsen – if the rise in crude oil prices continues.
What can the state do? To cushion the oil shock, it has fewer room for maneuver than on the price of electricity. Anxious to respect its promise to limit its rise to 4%, it has deprived of € 8 billion in tax revenue by reducing the electricity tax and has put EDF contribution for an equivalent amount. It can not ask TotalEnergies or Shell to reduce their margins. Lower fuel taxes, which represent 55% of the price at the pump, would be ruinous. As for a new “inflation indemnity” of 100 euros, recently granted to modest households, it is expensive for a very limited effect.
This is the price of black gold that is at the origin of a thrust feeding inflation. Tuesday, in London, the barrel of Brent of the North Sea, worldwide, reached 87.51 dollars (77.18 euros), exceeding its October 2014 level. The demand is supported, and many analysts. waiting for the barrel quickly to 90 dollars. And even at $ 100 in the second semester, as provided by the Goldman Sachs bank, while the global economy does not seem affected by the oumn variant outbreak.
Uncertain offer
The offer-demand balance is fragile. In its monthly report, published on Tuesday, January 18, the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains its rise in raising increases of 4.2 million barrels. It will be “robust” because of sustained growth, and despite uncertainties on the Chinese economic machine. The cartel nauces its optimism. “Even if the impact of the Omicron variant should be light and short-lived, it prevents, uncertainties remain about new variants or new mobility restrictions.”
Faced with this request, the offer is more uncertain. So far, the thirteen members of the OPEC, associated with ten other nations (including Russia) within the OPEC +, have not given enough outstanding oil since the summer to lower the courses: + 400,000 barrels a day, and 166,000 only in December 2021 because of the difficulties of a few countries to hold their production quota, especially Nigeria and Libya. Taking note of the refusal of the OPEC + to loosen the valves, the US President Joe Biden, on November 23, 2021, announced that he would draw 50 million barrels in strategic stocks to relax the markets and lower the price of the price. Gallon for motorists. No effect on classes.
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