OMICRON: reasons for French tidal wave

France holds, with Denmark, the European record of the daily number of per capita contamination. Figures that are explained in particular by the relaxation of the population and the lack of effective prevention measures in schools.

by and

On the website Our World in Data, the amazed graph. The authors of this online publication from the University of Oxford, trace the evolution of the number of positive daily cases at COVID-19. At each country of Europe, its color. In red, one of them comes out of the lot: France. With its very steep slope, almost constant since December 27, 2021, it offers a unique profile, and a record number of contaminations. As at January 20, the weekly average of the new cases recorded each day reaches 337,446, when the second country, Italy, posted 180,373 positive tests. The United Kingdom and Germany caps, for its part, to 92,000 and 90,000 new daily contaminations. The others follow far behind.

This representation is somewhat misleading. To measure the actual impact of the Omicron wave that overlooks Europe, since the end of the year 2021, check the box “compared to the population”. This time, Denmark accompanies France among the countries counting, every day, more than 5,000 new cases per million inhabitants. Since January 18, the Scandinavian country even exceeded us.

But behind, the hole is dug: Portugal, Belgium and Switzerland have between 3,000 and 4,000 cases, the United Kingdom continues with 1,300 cases, Germany has just exceeded 1,000 . “Whatever the way we take the numbers, this observation remains for us a mystery, admits Hajo Zeeb, professor of epidemiology at the University of Bremen, Germany. Either this comes tests, either this comes from the chances that you leave the virus to circulate in France. I fear that the second hypothesis is the good. “

More tests in Denmark than in France

The first, highly put forward by the government, deserves to be examined. On January 3rd, on France Inter, Minister of Health Olivier Veran had assured him: “There is no country, almost, which tests as much as us”. On January 6, Prime Minister Jean Castex, brought to BFMTV: “France is the second country in the world to test.” It was then to relativize the waiting lines observed in front of the pharmacies.

Today, the argument could explain the record number of contaminations, of which 96% are caused by the Omicron variant. It is easy to understand, the more we test, the more positive cases are found. Except that the affirmation appears without foundation. The calculations of the world, published on January 7, had shown, the current figures confirm: France tests more than Italy, Belgium or Germany. But less than Great Britain, Portugal and especially Denmark, which could legitimately advance this explanation.

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/Media reports.