Retreats: difficult assessment of effects of a looting of legal age

“Le Monde” could consult the preparatory work of the pension guidance board, which must address this issue, Thursday, January 27th.

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Recently restarted by Emmanuel Macron, the debate on pensions arouses the dissemination of studies that nourish the doubt as well as certainties. During his speech of November 9, 2021, the President of the Republic stated that it would have to “work longer by pushing the legal age” from which persons may claim the payment of their pension – a parameter today fixed 62 years old. What would be the impacts of such a reform, qualified as “necessary” by the head of state? It is on this question that Floor, Thursday, January 27, the pension orientation council, a body devoted to the knowledge and debate in which union and employers representatives, senior officials, parliamentarians and qualified personalities sit. . The reflection will be fueled by several research, that Le Monde could consult and whose results are not always convergent.

The theme of the January 27 meeting was selected following a suggestion from the CFDT, which found it useful to discuss the retirement age to inform public opinion. Upstream of the discussions, the members of the pension orientation council received several notes, who attempt to appreciate what would happen if the pensions were paid from 64 years and no more than 62 years. Written by central governments or experts outside the state, these documents are, in some cases, the recovery of existing elements while others bring new numbers.

Among the studies made available, there is one that seeks to identify the supplies endorsed overcuses in case of recovery of “the age of opening of rights”. The community would, in fact, be conducted to finance a larger volume of aid, especially because people would not be able to stay in activity or to find one from here at their e birthday. Thus, a two-year decline in the legal retirement age would have provoked “in 2019 an increase in social benefit expenditure, excluding retirement and unemployment insurance, of the order of 3.6 billion euros”, either 0.14 Point of GDP. Half of the “invoice” would be attributable to disability pensions, while social minima (whose adult disability allowance) would represent a little less a quarter.

different calculations

For its part, the jobseekers’ compensation scheme would also have to take on its wing more recipients, especially those who are 62 and 63 years old. Amount of additional effort: 1.3 billion euros per year. This estimate, however, has limits, if only because the reform would also, at the same time, increase the share of individuals from 62 to 64 who are in office: such an evolution would report more contributions. , in favor of unemployment insurance and the rest of our social protection system, while reducing certain expenses (eg those related to pensions).

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/Media reports.