According to the IPSOS-SOPRA Steria survey for “Le Monde”, RN and LR candidates are at the elbow-to-elbow against Emmanuel Macron. The arrival of Christiane Taubira accentuates the scattering of the votes on the left.
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An outgoing president at the top of the voting intentions; A left that does not end up scattering and a settlement of the Party candidate the Republicans (LR), Valérie Pécresse, who now does equal game with Marine Le Pen, a far-right candidate … less than three months of the presidential election, the fourth wave of the electoral survey, carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for [Nute], shows that the match for The second place is tighter than ever.
This study was conducted from January 14 to 17, a politically rich period. Thus, the formalization of Christiane Taubira’s candidacy took place on Saturday, January 15, Mediapart’s article revealing that the Minister of Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, was still On vacation in Ibiza when he finalized the health protocol of the beginning of January , was published on January 17. The “Immersive” meeting of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Nantes was held on January 16th. Finally, the controversy over the exit of Eric Zemmour about the reception of children with disabilities, broke out on January 14th.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 12,542 people. The voting intentions are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, ie 7,910 people. Result: The margins of error are very low, including 0.2 and 1 point.
One of the main changes compared to the previous December 2021 wave is the return of Marine Le Pen as a finalist possible. Since the start of the school member, the Pas-de-Calais had had to face the emergence of Eric Zemmour’s candidacy, a direct competitor within the far right. Then the designation of Valérie Pécresse as the right candidate, invested during the LR Congress. Opting for a low noise campaign, avoiding in the controversy – standing out for Mr. Zemmour -, M me Le Pen chose to make the back round. In one month, she managed to catch up (she is progressing from a point compared to December 2021) and is tied with M me pecresse: 15.5% of the voting intentions (margin error of more or less 0.8 point). For its part, the candidate of LR loses 1.5 points (especially for the benefit of Emmanuel Macron). The duel that is emerging for second place, and therefore for the presence in the second round, is going on between the two women.
Forty far right block
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