The scientists of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences disclosed that the decrease in the content of anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere of the Earth in the near future will entail warming. In the event of a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this effect will be overlapped to reduce global temperatures, which will slow down the cooling. This is reported in the article published in the journal Science Bulletin.
To achieve the indicators provided for by the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to significantly reduce the amount of emissions into the atmosphere. However, according to models, it will lead to the opposite effects. Aerosols block solar radiation and cause a cooling effect, and greenhouse gases contribute to global warming. In the event of a decrease in greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will start cooling, but the decrease in aerosols will slow down this effect.
According to the scenario, warming caused by the continuing reduction in emissions of aerosols in the 21st century will lead to an increase in the average global surface temperature for a longer period of time, and not to a decrease in the reduction of CO2 emissions.
at a low level of emissions, when in other regions there are long-term tendencies to increase the surface temperature, subogenous Northern Atlantic (south of Greenland) demonstrates long-term trends towards cooling. In this phenomenon, aerosols prevail, while CO2 plays a secondary role.