By January 1, 2022, this block called RCEP, which includes China, Japan, Australia and South Korea, will only account for one third of the gross domestic product of the planet and one third of the world population.
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Asia takes an important step towards its economic and commercial integration. The Global Economic Regional Partnership (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP), has been negotiated since 2011 and that comes into force this January 2022, should give rise to the largest free trade area of the world after A gradual lowering of customs duties spread over twenty years. This new block, which includes China, Japan, Australia and South Korea, it alone accounts for a third of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the planet and one third of the world’s population.
Tariffs will mainly concern the manufacturing, engine of regional growth, more than services or agriculture, a sector still very sensitive politically and makes many inhabitants live. According to the analysis conducted in 2020 by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a US study center, this agreement is expected to increase by 0.2% of the GDP of its signatory countries, in particular that of Japan, China and the South Korea.
At them three, these countries account for 80% of the GDP of the new commercial block, and they are not part, unlike the countries of Southeast Asia meeting in the Association of Nations of South Asia. East (ASEAN), a free trade agreement in the region. This is the first time that an ambitious commercial treaty links these three economic trucks. Takashi Terada, Professor at Doshisha University of Kyoto, goes even up to qualify the RCEP of “Free Trade Agreement between China and Japan”, given the important gains recorded by these two economies.
“New Gravity Center” of World Trade
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which qualifies the RCEP of “new center of gravity” of world trade, believes that it will increase the exchanges in this block of 2%, or about 42 billions of dollars (37 billion euros). These gains come from the decline in tariffs, but especially the diversion of part of the exchanges with the rest of the world.
The exports of the European Union and the United States to the region are expected to decrease by 2% and 1%, respectively. Those of South Asia will be the most impacted, including Bangladesh (- 12%), Pakistan (- 4%) and India (- 2%). “The whole world will benefit from this agreement, as it will increase the revenues available in the region, which will offer better opportunities to exporters from other continents”, however, relativize Cyn-Young Park, responsible for regional cooperation at the Asian Bank. development.
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