Inflation in Russia in 2022 may amount to 3.5 percent, allowed a conversation with the “ribbon.ru” economist, ex-adviser to the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Evgeny Nadorshin. But for this, the authorities need to control the level of social benefits, and the Central Bank to continue the rigid policy.
“If the state begins to focus on social payments, it will be difficult to return to inflation in four percent and even difficult. Partly, for the same reason, we observed a surge in inflation in the fall: yes, a significant factor was the lack of town year, but contributed to my contribution. And payments made in August-September for children, pensioners, servicemen and categories equivalent to them. So, although the external shocks and faulties played a decisive role, the social range also contributed to the acceleration of local inflation, “the economist noted.
At the same time, the Central Bank conducts an extremely aggressive policy to deter inflation. If the direction of work of the Bank of Russia will continue, then the influence of the social range will be insignificant, considers Nadorshin ,.
“So the main thing now is to provide a harvest, which could not be done in the past, neither this year, when the borschy set, cucumbers, tomatoes have been recorded a record, cucumbers, Policy as a whole. If you take into account this, raising the CB rates next year, attenuation of external shocks and a good harvest, then inflation may be even lower than the expected reference point, making up somewhere 3.5 percent, which is quite consistent with the goals of the authorities “, – noted Nadorshin.
During the annual press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the need to return to target inflation targets in Russia four percent. Following the year, it is expected, it is eight percent.