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While sanitary restrictions had been curking everywhere in Europe for a few days, the discovery of a new variant coming from southern Africa has grown down the scholarships Friday, November 26: – 5.02% for the CAC40, – 4 , 15% for the Dax in Germany, – 3.64% for the FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom … The trend was the same in the United States, where all stock indexes lost more than 2% during the session, while The wti oil barrel collapsed by 12%, just below the 70 dollars.
The discovery of Variant says B.1.1.529, first in Botswana and then in South Africa, is still very recent but its profile seems disturbing, with a very fast propagation potential and a possible resistance to vaccines. Cases were also detected in Hongkong, Israel and Belgium. Quickly, most countries have suspended flights from Southern Africa. The United Kingdom was the first to announce it on Thursday night. France has made the same Friday, prohibiting “for a minimum of forty-eight hours” Arrivals of South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia and Eswatini (new name of the Swaziland). The European Commission has proposed to the entire European Union to do the same.
Friday, the World Health Organization has attempted to moderate concern, judging it was too early to assess the danger of this variant. But the financial markets did not take it into account.
It must be said that the situation was mature. “Markets have increased significantly over the last eight weeks, in addition to a year that was already good, and they were waiting for the first excuse to correct,” says Chris Beauchamp, Analyst at IG, a brokerage firm. After this day, CAC 40 remains up 20% since the beginning of the year.
Recession avoided little
In addition, for a few weeks, across Northern Europe, bad economic news multiply. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria … One by one, governments impose new measures of sanitary restrictions. Austria is in confinement for twenty days. Friday, the Belgian government has cured sanitary restrictions for the second time in one week: bars and restaurants must close at 11 pm while nightclubs have to pull the iron curtain for three weeks.
Germany, which counts for a fifth of the euro zone economy, also oscillates at the edge of a confinement. The restrictions are changing according to the Länder, but everywhere they harden, between the taxation of the sanitary pass, canceling Christmas markets and limitation of the number of people per store. Oliver Rakau, from Oxford Economics, based in Frankfurt, closely follows the mobility index provided by Google, which has been dropped down for a few weeks: “we are witnessing a kind of voluntary social distancing.” People move A little less, avoid crowded places, choose teleworking … “The truth is that the pandemic is still with us, for longer than it was hoped,” he adds.
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