Professor, Leading Researcher and Head of the Laboratory of the Economic Faculty of Moscow State University, Andrei Kolganov in a conversation with “Ribbon.ru” doubted the forecast, which gave the chief economist Saxo Bank Style Jacobsen.
Previously, Jacobsen predicted that inflation in the United States to the beginning of 2023 will reach 15 percent. According to the economist, unemployment will have a significant impact on its growth, “extreme instability on US stock and credit markets”, as well as the results of intermediate elections in Congress in November 2022.
Kolganov said that it belongs to such a forecast skeptical and considers the development of such a scenario unlikely, but 100 percent does not exclude the negative development of events in 2022.
“The level of inflation in the United States economy, in general, does not grow high rapidly, the inflation spiral is not spinning. There inflation has become higher than in the previous period, but such rapid growth rates of inflation, let’s say as in Russia, They are not observed, “the economist explained, noting that in Russia inflation is not so catastrophically high, as it was, for example, in the 90s or early 2000s.
Also, the Kolganov did not consider the 2022th year in the USA as a year under threat of economic problems due to unemployment, as it is reduced in the country even faster than the American government predicts.
But fears associated with the situation in the financial markets, the economist considers more solid. “Financial markets, of course, overheated, and the correction on them is possible, negative scenarios are possible, but again, I do not think that these scenarios will acquire a crisis. I think that the overheated economy, which is associated with a very large scale of the monetary emission is not Only in the United States, but also in the European Union, and other countries will not lead to some catastrophic consequences in the stock markets, “said Kolganov, – this overheated will be preserved, in my opinion, for a long time just for the reason that no There are no other tools to maintain the functioning of the stock market in the hands of the financial authorities. Another question is that this is once a bubble, of course, burst, but it is unlikely to happen soon. “
The economist made some very painful decals in the financial market in the near future, but not such catastrophic, as in 2008 or at the beginning of the 20th year.