After the post-pandemic catch-up effect, the growth of the global economy will slow down from 2022, warns the international organization.
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After a peak waited in the last quarter 2021, the global economic recovery will slow down. According to the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published Wednesday 1 December, the global gross domestic product growth (GDP) should increase from 5.6% to 2021 to 4 , 5% in 2022, then to 3.25% in 2023. The global economy should not catch up before 2023 its level of the Pandemic of Covid-19, with a much faster recovery in advanced economies than among emerging and poor countries.
Especially, this recovery is more uncertain than ever as threatened by serious global health and economic imbalances, warns the OECD. First of all in immunization: 147 doses have been administered on average per 100 inhabitants in rich countries, against 8 in poor countries, which increases the risks of appearance of new potentially more contagious and vaccine-resistant strains, such as This is the case with the Omicron variant discovered recently. With incomplete data on its lethality and contagiousness, it is too early to measure the consequences.
The OECD recalls that “the first of the political priorities” is to “ensure that vaccines are produced and deployed as quickly as possible around the world”. In other words, the pandemic will be defeated anywhere if it does not disappear everywhere. A message that is struggling to be heard by political leaders, the admission of Laurence Boone, Chief Economist of the Organization: “The G20 countries spent $ 10,000 billion (800 billion euros) for Supporting their economy during the pandemic, and poor countries need $ 50 billion to vaccinate their populations. Why do not we make more efforts to save a human and economical cost so high? “
bottlenecks
The economic trajectories of countries also diverge. “The loss of growth was proportionately greater for emerging economies (…) and especially for low-income developing countries,” Note the OECD, which highlights their fragility due to high foreign currency indebtedness. who obeys their tax margin and could slow down their recovery.
The imbalances finally dig into each economy, with consumption that promotes manufactured goods rather than services, while removing to e-commerce. This is shown by the growth gap between trade in goods and services, published Tuesday, November 30 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The first jumped by 22% in the third quarter 2021, in an annual rate, while the second grew by 6%. The exchange of goods, worth $ 5,600 billion in the third quarter 2021, reached a record level.
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