The economic growth of Russia is threatened with risks associated with coronavirus pandemic and inflation. This is stated in the new report of the World Bank. The document entered the “Renta.ru”. The low level of vaccination of the population may lead to new care restrictions and thereby reduce the economic activity of Russians, and the likely increase in the rate of the Central Bank will slow down GDP growth, consider it in the organization.
In the autumn of 2021, Russia was overwhelmed by a new wave of incidence of COVID-19, which is why economic growth has already been slow down the pace after the summer takeoff, mainly in the regions with low vaccination rates. Another outbreak required new restrictive measures, for example, the introduction of non-working days in October-November. Risks increase the spread of the new Omicron strain, which has already indirectly affected the Russian economy.
According to the forecast of the World Bank, the rate of vaccination in Russia will not change in 2022 and a significant part of the population will remain unvited for most of the year. Therefore, COVID-19 will continue to be greater danger to the health of Russians, and the authorities can introduce permanent and periodic restrictive measures. The organization calls the incidence of the state by a factor directly limiting the economic activity of the inhabitants.
In addition, the World Bank believes that the current monetary policy of the Central Bank is effective and with high probability will help reduce inflation. However, this figure in 2021 exceeded the forecasts of many analysts, and may be more sustainable than expected in the Central Bank. Then the new tightening of monetary policy will be required, which will reduce the domestic demand in Russia and will slow down economic growth.
The uncertainty about the future demand for energy carriers also puts the perspectives of the country at risk, consider in the organization. The demand of hydrocarbons depends immediately from several unpredictable factors – the sustainability of the restoration of the global economy, the speed and scale of the global energy equipment, as well as the actions of Russia for the introduction of the “green” energy.
In October, the Saxo Bank Danish bank stated that Russia is in dangerous proximity to the stagnation – the situation when the economic decline is combined with inflation. According to analysts of a credit institution, improving the trends can increase budget expenditures aimed at supporting the poorest part of the population and infrastructure investments.