Inflation darkens the economic balance of the executive, a few months from the presidential election. The purchasing power could fall by 0.5% in the next six months, according to the INSEE note published Tuesday, December 14th.
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This is the note that falls badly. While, since the beginning of the crisis due to the Koranavirus, the policy of the “what-it-in-cost” has saved the economic fabric of a dreaded disaster and to preserve the purchasing power of households, Inflation could come darkened the economic balance of the executive, a few months from the presidential election. INSEE, which publishes, on Tuesday, December 14, its marketing note for the fourth quarter, provides for purchasing power, up 1.8% out of 2021, will increase by 0.5% on the first half. 2022, due to rising prices. A landing in pain, while this subject is highly sensitive. “[C ‘] is the most important element in the French vote,” says Bernard Sananès, President of the Elabe Survey Institute.
This decline could be even more difficult to feel that it will occur in a context of slowing up the recovery. The growth of the French gross domestic product (GDP), from 0.5% to the fourth quarter, as expected, will reach 6.7% on the whole of 2021. By hypothesizing – fragile – that sanitary restrictions do not Nice more, the rebound in the economy will continue at a rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2022 and 0.5% in the second. A tempo that allows to fix the acquis of growth – which is definitively stored, even if the activity remains atone for the rest of the year – at 3.0% at the end of the first half, according to the forecasts of the INSEE.
This slowdown is partly due to the persistence of supply difficulties, which remain at an unpublished level and strongly penalize activity in the industry. In the automobile, production is, at the end of the year, at a lower level of 25% to 30% to the front-crisis. Difficult to hope for a quick return to normal in a context of increased international uncertainties; The new border restrictions will further slow the recovery in sectors such as tourism or hotel and restaurant. A worrying signal, Tuesday, from China: in the Zhejiang industrial region, in the east of the country, several large companies had to suspend production, in order to limit contamination to COVID-19.
Increase in the energy bill
But the main black point remains inflation, the very one that threatens to nibble the purchasing power of households. INSEE has examined in detail the increase in the energy bill of French on 2021. The result is without appeal: the rating of gas, electricity and fuel increased by 30 euros, on average, per month, compared By the end of 2019. The gas, which sprung by more than 40% between December 2020 and October, weighs, on its own, for half of this extra cost; The fuel represents 8 euros more per month, an even higher figure in rural areas, and electricity plays for the rest.
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