The rapid growth of the key bet in the future will define not only inflation, but also economic activity in the country, the economist is confident, the financial analyst, the former adviser to the Minister of Economic Development Evgeny Nadorshin. In a conversation with “Tape.ru”, he added that such an aggressive policy of the Central Bank may lead to such negative consequences as an increase in uncertainty in the market.
On the last year, the meeting of Russia announced the meeting on December 17, the Bank of Russia announced another increase in the key rate. The indicator will grow in the seventh time due to accelerating inflation. The specific figure was not indicated, but analysts unanimously believe that the Central Bank raises the rate to the maximum level in the previously indicated range.
Improving the uncertainty in the market
The financial analyst drew attention to the fact that in the consumer price index it is seen: inflation in the services sector turned out to be below everything, amounting to 4-5 percent, which is fully related to the tasks of the Central Bank.
“Inflation here was significantly lower than in the sphere of food and non-food products. But a sharp increase in the key rate promised by the Central Bank is indiscrutively, it will put on the service sector, which is so much suffered from the coronavirus pandemic. Probably, the policy of the Central Bank Finally ask local services, creating extremely unfavorable conditions for their recovery, “says Nadashin.
The main reasons for the growth of inflation this year, the economist considers external factors, as well as the lack of town year. But the country is able to cope with the last factor, competently stimulating agriculture, and then, according to the analyst forecasts, 2022 will bring the crop growth and, accordingly, stabilization or even reduction in food prices in the domestic market. Moreover, the increase in the key rate will almost not affect this process.
“and then when shocks associated with the harvest remain just a high rate that will deflate inflation together with economic activity in the country. The result of this will be extremely low growth rates, about 1.5 percent, which is very sad. And The Central Bank will have to have sharply reduce the rates in order to stimulate economic activity. The market, unfortunately, is used to this vicious logic and is trying to mainly guess further actions of the regulator. All this in the amount simply increases uncertainty, including in the financial market and reduces stability. that our authorities want so much, “explained Nadashshin.
Raising rates became apparent after the November publication of Rosstat on accelerating inflation to 8.4 percent, the maximum since 2016. Due to record increase in analytics of Russian commercial banks deny the possibility of returning inflation to 4 percent in 2022. In their opinion, the indicator will decrease only to 6-7 percent.